Browsing by Author "Ahmad, W."

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Citation - WoS: 31
Citation - Scopus: 34
Mathematical Analysis for the Effect of Voluntary Vaccination on the Propagation of Corona Virus Pandemic
(Elsevier, 2021) Abbas, M.; Rafiq, M.; Baleanu, D.; Ahmad, W.; 56389; 02.02. Matematik; 02. Fen-Edebiyat Fakültesi; 01. Çankaya Üniversitesi
In this manuscript, a new nonlinear model for the rapidly spreading Corona virus disease (COVID-19) is developed. We incorporate an additional class of vaccinated humans which ascertains the impact of vaccination strategy for susceptible humans. A complete mathematical analysis of this model is conducted to predict the dynamics of Corona virus in the population. The analysis proves the effectiveness of vaccination strategy employed and helps public health services to control or to reduce the burden of corona virus pandemic. We first prove the existence and uniqueness and then boundedness and positivity of solutions. Threshold parameter for the vaccination model is computed analytically. Stability of the proposed model at fixed points is investigated analytically with the help of threshold parameter to examine epidemiological relevance of the pandemic. We apply LaSalle's invariance principle from the theory of Lyapunov function to prove the global stability of both the equilibria. Two well known numerical techniques namely Runge-Kutta method of order 4 (RK4), and the Non-Standard Finite Difference (NSFD) method are employed to solve the system of ODE's and to validate our obtained theoretical results. For different coverage levels of voluntary vaccination, we explored a complete quantitative analysis of the model. To draw our conclusions, the effect of proposed vaccination on threshold parameter is studied numerically. It is claimed that Corona virus disease could be eradicated faster if a human community selfishly adopts mandatory vaccination measures at various coverage levels with proper awareness. Finally, we have executed the joint variability of all classes to understand the effect of vaccination strategy on a disease dynamics.
Citation - WoS: 46
Citation - Scopus: 52
Numerical Analysis of Atangana-Baleanu Fractional Model To Understand the Propagation of a Novel Corona Virus Pandemic
(Elsevier, 2022) Butt, A. I. K.; Ahmad, W.; Rafiq, M.; Baleanu, D.; 56389; 02.02. Matematik; 02. Fen-Edebiyat Fakültesi; 01. Çankaya Üniversitesi
In this manuscript, we formulated a new nonlinear SEIQR fractional order pandemic model for the Corona virus disease (COVID-19) with Atangana-Baleanu derivative. Two main equilibrium points F-0*, F-1* of the proposed model are stated. Threshold parameter R-0 for the model using next generation technique is computed to investigate the future dynamics of the disease. The existence and uniqueness of solution is proved using a fixed point theorem. For the numerical solution of fractional model, we implemented a newly proposed Toufik-Atangana numerical scheme to validate the importance of arbitrary order derivative q and our obtained theoretical results. It is worth mentioning that fractional order derivative provides much deeper information about the complex dynamics of Corona model. Results obtained through the proposed scheme are dynamically consistent and good in agreement with the analytical results. To draw our conclusions, we explore a complete quantitative analysis of the given model for different quarantine levels. It is claimed through numerical simulations that pandemic could be eradicated faster if a human community selfishly adopts mandatory quarantine measures at various coverage levels with proper awareness. Finally, we have executed the joint variability of all classes to understand the effectiveness of quarantine policy on human population. (c) 2021 THE AUTHORS. Published by Elsevier BV on behalf of Faculty of Engineering, Alexandria University This is an open access article under the CC BY license (http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/ 4.0/).