Browsing by Author "Dincer, A. Ersin"

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Citation - WoS: 12
Citation - Scopus: 15
Debris Flow Modelling and Hazard Assessment for a Glacier Area: a Case Study in Barsem, Tajikistan
(Springer, 2023) Dincer, A. Ersin; Kalpakci, Volkan; Ozturk, Sevki; Yilmaz, Kutay; 163874; 06.05. İnşaat Mühendisliği; 06. Mühendislik Fakültesi; 01. Çankaya Üniversitesi
This study analyses a previous debris flow hazard as a consequence of emerging risks related to climate and regional physical changes. In addition to the increasing flood frequencies, there is an increasing risk of mud or debris flow due to increasing temperature and heavy precipitation resulting in glacier melting. One of the most recent dramatic examples of the debris flow incident took place in Barsem, Tajikistan, in 2015. As a result of heavy precipitation and excess temperature, the melting of glaciers caused debris flow which ended up with a catastrophic damage at Barsem Town. In this study, a methodology for modelling debris flow and related hazard is developed by examining the 2015 incident in detail with a commercially available software, Hydrological Engineering Centre-River Analysis System (HEC-RAS). Simulations and hazard assessment of the incident suggest that assessment of debris flow hazard can be implemented similar to flood hazard. Moreover, it is seen that debris flow inundation area can be predicted accurately by low-resolution free-source digital elevation models (DEMs), while in the present work they could not predict the debris flow hazard assessment accurately. Sensitivity results also reveal that free-source DEMs with higher resolutions do not necessarily give better predictions than free-source DEMs with lower resolutions.
Citation - WoS: 12
Citation - Scopus: 13
Effect of Urbanization on Surface Runoff and Performance of Green Roofs and Permeable Pavement for Mitigating Urban Floods
(Springer, 2024) Ozturk, Sevki; Yilmaz, Kutay; Dincer, A. Ersin; Kalpakci, Volkan; 06.05. İnşaat Mühendisliği; 06. Mühendislik Fakültesi; 01. Çankaya Üniversitesi
Floods are increasingly becoming a significant concern due to climate change, global warming, and excessive urbanization. The Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) has projected that global warming will continue to contribute to more frequent and severe floods and hydrological extremes. In response to these challenges, nature-based solutions (NBSs) have gained recognition as effective approaches to mitigate the adverse impacts of floods by focusing on ecosystem conservation, restoration, and sustainable utilization of natural resources. This study examines a flood that occurred in the Erkilet District of Kayseri, T & uuml;rkiye on September 22, 2022, as a result of intense rainfall. It involves a thorough on-site investigation to assess the hydraulic, hydrologic, and geotechnical attributes of the study area. The findings from the field study indicate that the primary cause of the flood is attributed to excessive urbanization. To further analyze the impact of urbanization, a hydraulic model is developed considering both the physical and topographical conditions of the study area for both the year 2006 and 2022. The simulation results reveal that the extent of inundation area and water depth has increased significantly due to the excessive urbanization that occurred within a 16-year period. Additionally, the effectiveness of green roofs and permeable pavements as NBSs to mitigate urban flooding is explored. The implementation of green roofs and permeable pavements shows promising results, reducing the adverse effects of urban floods by 3% to 8%, depending on their specific locations and configurations. However, the results suggest that NBSs alone cannot fully prevent floods so they should complement gray infrastructure. The novelty of the study lies in its ability to demonstrate the impact of urbanization and the effectiveness of nature-based solutions in mitigating flood extent based.