Browsing by Author "Hasanov, Mübariz"

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Are the Transition Stock Markets Efficient? Evidence from Non-Linear Unit Root Tests
(2007) Omay, Tolga; Omay, Tolga; Hasanov, Mübariz; 19320; Çankaya Meslek Yüksekokulu
In this paper we address efficiency of eight transition stock markets, namely, Bulgarian, Chinese, Czech, Hungarian, Polish, Romanian, Russian and Slovakian stock markets by testing whether the price series of these markets contain unit root. For this purpose we employ the nonlinear unit root test procedure recently developed by Kapetanios et al. (2003) that has a better power than standard unit root tests when series under consideration are characterised by a slower speed of mean reversion. The results of nonlinear unit root tests indicate that only Bulgarian, Czech, Hungarian and Slovakian price series contain unit root, consistent with weak form efficiency.
Türkiye için reaksiyon fonksiyonunun doğrusal olmayan modelle tahmin edilmesi
(Çankaya Üniversitesi, 2010) Omay, Tolga; Hasanov, Mübariz; 19320; Çankaya Meslek Yüksekokulu
In this paper we have estimated the monetary reaction function of the Central Bank of the Republic of Turkey. The originality of the paper is that we have used smooth transition functions (STR) that allow for proper modelling of nonlinearities and asymmetries in the relationship between variables under consideration. The estimated models suggest that the backward-looking instead of foreward-looking models best characterize the Central Bank’s reaction function, that is, the Central Bank reacted to past inflation rates rather than to future rates. This finding is in conformity with earlier research. We have found that the main purpose of expansionary policy of the Central Bank is to stabilize output whereas contractionary policies aimed only at reducing the inflation rate. The fact that the Central Bank has disregarded inflation in conducting expansionary policy and focused only on output stabilisation may explain why the Central Bank was not successful in fighting inflation. Besides, neither in expansionary policy regime nor in contractionary policy regime, real exchange rate is not targeted by the Central Bank. Moreover, budget deficit is targeted only in the contractionary policy regime