Browsing by Author "Ilalan, Deniz"

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Citation - WoS: 2
Citation - Scopus: 2
An Alternative Mean Reversion Test for Interest Rates
(Central Bank Republic Turkey, 2018) Ozel, Ozgur; Ilalan, Deniz; 01. Çankaya Üniversitesi; 03.01. Bankacılık ve Finans; 03. İktisadi ve İdari Birimler Fakültesi
A number of empirical studies assert that interest rates are governed by unit root processes rejecting any form of reversion to a long term mean by resorting to certain tests, among which the Augmented Dickey Fuller (ADF) is the most widely used one. In this study, we propose an alternative testing methodology that can be applied along with ADF test, in the sense that there are times where it can capture stationarity when the other fails to do so. Moreover, our test has more power than ADF test. As an application to real-data, we consider 10-year US and Turkish T-bond rates. (C) 2017 Central Bank of The Republic of Turkey. Production and hosting by Elsevier B.V.
Citation - WoS: 5
Citation - Scopus: 6
Elliott Wave Principle and the Corresponding Fractional Brownian Motion in Stock Markets: Evidence From Nikkei 225 Index
(Pergamon-elsevier Science Ltd, 2016) Ilalan, Deniz; 01. Çankaya Üniversitesi; 03.01. Bankacılık ve Finans; 03. İktisadi ve İdari Birimler Fakültesi
This paper examines one of the vital technical analysis indicators known as the Elliott wave principle. Since these waves have a fractal nature with patterns that are not exact, we first determine the dimension of them. Our second aim is to find a linkage between Elliott wave principle and fractional Brownian motion via comparing their Hausdorff dimensions. Thirdly, we consider the Nikkei 225 index during Japan asset price bubble, which is a perfect example of an Elliott wave. (C) 2016 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.
How Us Wages Effect Post-Socialist European Stock Markets: an Empirical Study
(Univ Oviedo, 2018) Ilalan, Deniz; 01. Çankaya Üniversitesi; 03.01. Bankacılık ve Finans; 03. İktisadi ve İdari Birimler Fakültesi
Following the famous tapering speech of Bernanke on 2013, US non-farm payroll data became the leading indicator for the monetary policy of Fed. After midst of 2014 Fed shifted its attention to average hourly wage increases which was regarded as the determinant of inflation. As inflation is closely linked with possible increments of Fed funds rate, investors began to follow US wages more closely. We investigate the impact of US wages especially through concentrating on some Post-Socialist European stock markets. As US wages are found to Granger cause these stock exchanges, interestingly with domestic wages, a similar causation relation could not be achieved. This brings out the question whether wages are indeed an indicator for stock markets or not.
Non-Linear Unit Root Testing With Arctangent Trend: Simulation and Applications in Finance
(Taylor & Francis As, 2018) Ozel, Ozgur; Ilalan, Deniz; 234617; 01. Çankaya Üniversitesi; 03.01. Bankacılık ve Finans; 03. İktisadi ve İdari Birimler Fakültesi
We consider arctangent as the logistic function and compute the asymptotic critical values of the related non-linear unit root test via Monte Carlo simulation. While doing so, we got inspiration from some pioneering articles and use first-order Taylor approximation. We observe that this newly proposed test exhibits higher power than some well-known linear and non-linear tests. We apply our test to some stock indexes and find out that a non-linear arctangent trend can be at stage, rather than a linear unit root process.
The effects of terrorist activities on foreign direct investment: nonlinear Evidence
(2013) Omay, Tolga; Takay Araz, Bahar; Ilalan, Deniz; 19320; 08.02. Çankaya Meslek Yüksekokulu; 08. Meslek Yüksekokulları; 01. Çankaya Üniversitesi; 03.01. Bankacılık ve Finans; 03. İktisadi ve İdari Birimler Fakültesi
In this study, we examine the relationship between foreign direct investment and terrorist incidents that took place in Turkey for the period from 1991:12 to 2003:12. This research contributes to the literature by checking for a possible non-linear relationship between terrorism and foreign direct investment. The data used to measure the intensity of terrorism were collected from the newspapers of Turkey, and therefore are limited to the direct signals given to the market. Empirical evidence from both linear and non-linear models confirms that terrorism has a large significant negative impact on foreign direct investment. With respect to the nonlinear model, the impact of terrorism on the foreign direct investment is more severe during periods of high terrorism when the intensity of terrorism passes the threshold level 3.725.
Unit Root Testing in the Presence of Mean Reverting Jumps: Evidence From US T-Bond Yields
(Walter de Gruyter GmbH, 2019) Ilalan, Deniz; Ozel, Ozgur; 01. Çankaya Üniversitesi; 03.01. Bankacılık ve Finans; 03. İktisadi ve İdari Birimler Fakültesi
Mean reversion of financial data, especially interest rates is often tested by linear unit root tests. However, there are times where linear unit root test results can be misleading especially when mean reverting jump formations are at stage. Considering this framework, we provide a new unit root testing methodology and compute its asymptotic critical values via Monte Carlo simulation. Moreover, we numerically compare the power of this generalized mean reversion test with the pioneering linear unit root test in the literature namely the Augmented Dickey Fuller (ADF) test. We deduce that our test is a refinement of ADF test with a higher power. Weapply our findings to US 10-year Treasury bond yields. We aim to shed light to the discussion among researchers whether interest rates can sometimes revert to a long-term constant mean or not from an unorthodox point of view.