Bankacılık ve Finans Bölümü

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Citation Count: Karadagli, E.C.; Donmez, M.G., "A Nonlinear Analysis of Weak Form Efficiency of Stock Index Futures Markets in Cce Emerging Economies", International Research Journal of Finance and Economics, Vol. 95, pp. 61-71, (2012).
A Nonlinear Analysis of Weak Form Efficiency of Stock Index Futures Markets in Cce Emerging Economies
(2012) Karadağlı, Ece Ceylan; 17735
Futures markets, through carrying considerable impact on the spot market, serving such functions as price discovery and risk reduction for all market participants, and providing beneficial effects on the economic growth process especially in emerging countries, appear to be a vital part of a well-functioning economy. Accordingly, this paper examines weak form futures market efficiency of five CEE Emerging Economies. For this purpose, besides the traditional unit root tests, to account for nonlinearities in financial data, we employ nonlinear unit root tests along with their panel extensions. The results suggest that although the examined markets are efficient in linear sense, inefficiencies prevail when we account for nonlinearities. These findings imply that the examined countries, especially Poland and Turkey, need to take precautions to overcome the obstacles in their prevailing market structures, especially inherited in the sources of nonlinearity in the financial data, and to ensure a more efficient futures markets
Citation Count: İlalan, Deniz (2016). "A Poisson process with random intensity for modeling financial stability", Spanish Review of Financial Economics, Vol. 14, No. 2, pp. 43-50.
A Poisson process with random intensity for modeling financial stability
(2016) İlalan, Deniz
Stock market crashes are hazardous for financial stability and usually modeled via Poisson processes having a predetermined fixed intensity. This study uses a more general framework by allowing the intensity to be random in order to model rare events called the “unpredictable unknowns”. Three stock indices, namely Japan Nikkei 225, US Dow Jones Industrial Average and Turkish BIST 100 are analyzed. Simulation results indicate that in stable markets, we encounter fewer unpredictable unknowns compared to unstable ones. However, it is also shown that stable markets are more prone to severe financial crises. © 2015 Asociación Española de Finanzas
Citation Count: Acar, Elif Oznur; Gunalp, Burak; Cilasun, Seyit Mumin, "An empirical analysis of household education expenditures in Turkey", International Journal of Educational Development, Vol. 51, pp. 23-35, (2016).
An empirical analysis of household education expenditures in Turkey
(Pergamon-Elsevier Science LTD, 2016) Acar, Elif Öznur; Günalp, Burak; Cilasun, Seyit Mümin
Using Turkish Household Budget Surveys from 2003, 2007 and 2012, this paper investigates the determinants of household education expenditures within an Engel curve framework. In particular, we estimate Tobit regressions of real educational expenditures by income groups using a number of household characteristics (i.e. rural residence, employment status, age, educational attainment of the household head, household size, share of female students and primary school students in the household, and total number of students in the household) to examine if and to what extent the determinants of educational expenditures differ by income groups; income elasticities of educational spending evolves over time; and children from middle-class and poor families can benefit enough from educational opportunities. The estimated expenditure elasticities have lower values for the top- and the bottom income quartiles while they have larger values for the middle-income quartiles. The results also show that for all income groups the expenditure elasticity of education increases over time, indicating that Turkish households allocates greater share of their budgets to education expenditures. (C) 2016 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.
Citation Count: Omay, Tolga; Yuksel, Asli; Yuksel, Aydin, "An Empirical Examination Of The Generalized Fisher Effect Using Cross-Sectional Correlation Robust Tests For Panel Cointegration", Journal of International Financial Markets Institutions & Money, 35, pp. 18-29, (2015).
An Empirical Examination Of The Generalized Fisher Effect Using Cross-Sectional Correlation Robust Tests For Panel Cointegration
(Elsevier Science, 2015) Omay, Tolga; Yüksel, Aslı; Yüksel, Aydın; 19320
This study examines the generalized Fisher hypothesis as applied to common stocks by using the recently proposed second generation panel cointegration tests. Unlike their predecessors, these new tests assume the existence of cross-section dependence in the data. For the sample analyzed, we report that these new tests, but not their predecessors, provide strong support for the existence of cointegration between stock and goods prices. Moreover, further analysis cannot reject the hypothesis that the cointegration relation is linear. Finally, our Fisher coefficient estimates are in the range between 0.68 and 1.27 and give support to the generalized Fisher hypothesis. (C) 2014 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.
Citation Count: Karadağlı, Ece C.; Omay, T. (2006). "An Examination Of The Effects Of The February, 2001 Crisis (Turkey) On The Performances Of The Low-Q And High-Q Firms", International Business & Economics Research Journal, Vol.5, No.7, pp.41-44.
An Examination Of The Effects Of The February, 2001 Crisis (Turkey) On The Performances Of The Low-Q And High-Q Firms
(2006) Karadağlı, Ece C.; Omay, Tolga
This paper examines the effects of the February 2001 Economic Crisis (Turkey) on the low-Q and high-Q firms. In the study, our sample is composed of the firms that are actively being traded on Istanbul Stock Exchange (ISE) during that time, and is divided into two sub-samples based on their Tobins' Q values. As firms with high Tobins' Q values are supposed to have lower debt levels we proposed them to be less affected by the crises: their debt repayment commitments are lower, although they are expected to be under the burden of higher interest rates. On the other hand, low-Q firms have incentives to overinvest due to the high levels of available free cash and they may be under the burden of some perquisites expenses. But because of the asset substitution affect, the investments undertaken by low-Q firms are expected to be safer projects while high-Q firms may have undertaken more risky projects. To test our hypothesis that the crisis would affect the low-and high-Q firms to differing extends, we construct the average mean excess returns of both sub-samples and use the Large Sample Test of Hypothesis About a Population Mean method. Our results mainly confirm our expectations: we found that the average mean excess negative returns of high-Q firms were higher than that of low-Q firms during the February 2001 Crisis, indicating that high-Q firms are more riskier in an economic crisis setting than low-Q firms, which in turn implies that the effects of the conflict between equityholders and debtholders dominate the affects of the conflict between managers and the shareholders.
Citation Count: Karadağlı, Ece; Aluftekin, N. (2012). "An examination of the major behavioral aspects of distribution channels in an export channel design", African Journal Of Business Management, Vol.6, No.6, pp.2211-2220.
An examination of the major behavioral aspects of distribution channels in an export channel design
(2012) Karadağlı, Ece; Aluftekin, Nilay
This paper concentrates on the behavioral aspects of distribution channels in an export channel design from the perspective of the exporter. Based on the argument that channel conflict and satisfaction are among the major determinants of channel efficiency and performance, the perceived degrees of channel conflict and satisfaction are examined as well as the three antecedents of channel conflict, namely the channel power, cultural distance and distribution system quality, as they are regarded among major factors affecting the channel conflict. In conducting the analysis, questionnaire survey was undertaken among 30 exporter companies that are members of Ankara Chamber of Commerce and Likert scaling technique is used. The findings from the ordinary least squares (OLS) regression analysis suggest that the Turkish exporter do not regard the level of exercised power in a marketing channel system and the cultural distance between the foreign channel member’ markets as important sources of conflict while the international distribution system quality seems to be perceived as a major source of channel conflict. The findings also suggest that there exists a close relationship between the perceived channel conflict and the channel members’ satisfaction.
Citation Count: Acar, Elif Öznur (2017). "An Outline of Skilled Emigration from Turkey to OECD Countries: A Panel Data Analysis", Uluslararası Ekonomi ve Yenilik Dergisi, Vol. 3, No. 1, pp. 1-16.
An Outline of Skilled Emigration from Turkey to OECD Countries: A Panel Data Analysis
(2017) Acar, Elif Öznur; 48566
Turkey provides rich evidence for the current international migration trends given its economic and demographic dynamics. The number of people moving overseas to settle permanently has been following an increasing trend in the recent decades, particularly remarkable for skilled and female groups. However, given the micro-level data limitations the migration outlook of Turkey is still quite bleak. The aim of this paper is to fill this gap and analyze the relationship between migration and human capital in the context of Turkish immigrants. First, aggregate trends of the Turkish emigrants in the 20 OECD destination countries by gender and educational level over the 1980-2010 period are examined using the IAB Brain Drain dataset. Next, a random effects panel estimation is applied to scrutinize the underlying dynamics of observed migration patterns adopting economic size, unemployment, demographic profile, urbanization and proximity as explanatory variables. The results reveal that gender, time and education are found as significantly related to international mobility trends, and the substantially left-skewedness of the distribution of Turkish emigrants along educational level is gradually fading away over time.
Citation Count: Acar, Elif Öznur. (2017). "An Outline of Skilled Emigration from Turkey to OECD Countries: A Panel Data Analysis", International Journal of Economics and Innovation, Vol.3, No.1, pp.1-16.
An Outline of Skilled Emigration from Turkey to OECD Countries: A Panel Data Analysis
(2017) Acar, Elif Öznur; 48566
Turkey provides rich evidence for the current international migration trends given its economic and demographic dynamics. The number of people moving overseas to settle permanently has been following an increasing trend in the recent decades, particularly remarkable for skilled and female groups. However, given the micro-level data limitations the migration outlook of Turkey is still quite bleak. The aim of this paper is to fill this gap and analyze the relationship between migration and human capital in the context of Turkish immigrants. First, aggregate trends of the Turkish emigrants in the 20 OECD destination countries by gender and educational level over the 1980-2010 period are examined using the IAB Brain Drain dataset. Next, a random effects panel estimation is applied to scrutinize the underlying dynamics of observed migration patterns adopting economic size, unemployment, demographic profile, urbanization and proximity as explanatory variables. The results reveal that gender, time and education are found as significantly related to international mobility trends, and the substantially left-skewedness of the distribution of Turkish emigrants along educational level is gradually fading away over time.
Citation Count: Akdoğan, E.C.,"Asymmetric Smooth Transition in Cds Spreads: Evidence From Latvia",Academy of Accounting and Financial Studies Journal, Vol. 23, No. 3, pp. 7, (2019).
Asymmetric Smooth Transition in Cds Spreads: Evidence From Latvia
(Allied Business Academies, 2019) Akdoğan, Ece Ceylan; 17735
This paper investigates the predictability of CDS premiums and thus addresses weak form informational efficiency of CDS markets through examining the statistical properties of Latvian CDS spreads in-between 01:2006-08:2017 by concentrating on stationarity issues. The findings for the Augmented Dickey Fuller test fail to reject the presence of unit root indicating that the CDS market is weak form efficient while nonlinear tests of Kapatenios, Snell and Shin, and Sollis claim the opposite, demonstrating a smooth transition in general, and asymmetric smooth transition in particular. Additionally, the results of Perron and Zivot-Andrews tests identify no structural break as well for robustness. These results underline the necessity of accounting for nonlinearities in CDS premiums to grasp the predictability dynamics better.
Citation Count: İlalan, Deniz (2015). "Can Stock Price Manipulation be Prevented by Granting More Freedom to Manipulators", International Journal of Economics and Finance, Vol. 7, No. 3, pp. 179-187.
Can Stock Price Manipulation be Prevented by Granting More Freedom to Manipulators
(2015) İlalan, Deniz
Allen and Gale (1992) construct a model to show that stock price manipulation is possible. The time structure of their model allows manipulators to pretend as “informed” traders, so that the local investors cannot distinguish what type of entrant they are facing. When the type of the entrant becomes known to the local investors it is already too late to make any use of that information. This paper shows an institution can be designed in a very natural fashion which induces different behaviors on the part of manipulators and “informed” traders at the beginning of the process. The institution designed roughly consists of entitling the entrants to resell stocks at a later date as well if they wish to do so. As this reasoning is also accessible to manipulators, the designed institution deters them from entering the market. Regarding the informed traders, their expected gain from entering the stock market may or may not be positive contingent on the basic parameters of the model. There are cases, however, when there is an improvement in the expected total gain of the local investors.
Citation Count: Özsuca Erenoğlu, E.A.; Acar, E.Ö. (2020). "Can US Wage Increases be Regarded as a Leading Indicator for Bond Rates?", World Journal of Applied Economics, Vol.6, No.2, pp.169-176.
Can US Wage Increases be Regarded as a Leading Indicator for Bond Rates?
(2020) Özsuca Erenoğlu, Ekin Ayşe; Acar, Elif Öznur; 237965; 48566
After the subprime meltdown, the Federal Reserve focused its attention on US non-farm payroll data in order to pave the way for its fund rate hikes. As time went by,the Federal Reserve deemed particularly one sub-component of this data, namely theincrements on average weekly wage growth as a proxy for inflation and thus a plausibleexplanation for raising the interest rates. In that aspect, we decide to elaborate on thisissue further and examine whether this implemented strategy indeed had a reflection inthe real market. For doing so, we intend to determine whether there is any causalityrelation in either direction between US average weekly wage increases and 10-yearTreasury Bond rates. We utilize the Toda-Yamamoto causality approach and comeup with a statistically significant result between wages and bond rates. For robustness,we also consider the unemployment rate and consumption expenditures as independentvariables.
Citation Count: Gönenç, Halit; Kan, Ozgur Berk; Karadagli, Ece C., "Corporate Diversification and Internal Capital Markets: Evidence from the Turkish Business Groups", 2004.
Corporate Diversification and Internal Capital Markets: Evidence from the Turkish Business Groups
(2004) Gönenç, Halit; Kan, Özgür Berk; Karadağlı, Ece C.; 17735
We compare the performance of firms affiliated with diversified business groups with the performance of unaffiliated firms in an emerging market, Turkey. Our findings indicate that group affiliation improves firm's accounting performance, but not stock market performance. Furthermore, we find that firm's accounting (but not stock market) performance increases with the level of group diversification. Our results also indicate that having a group affiliated bank affects the accounting performance measures of the group firms positively, but the market value of the group affiliated firms negatively, supporting the misallocation of capital hypothesis. In addition, having a group affiliated media institution is found to affect the performance of the group firms positively. More importantly, we examine the frequency of seasoned equity issue offerings with the forms of cash (right and restricted right) issues and bonus issues to address the question of whether group affiliated firms create an internal capital market. We show that unaffiliated firms are more bound to external markets to raise capital while the affiliated firms use internal capital markets. The views expressed in these papers are those of the author(s), they do not reflect the opinions of LECG, LLC and should not be construed as representing the positions of other experts at LECG, LLC.
Citation Count: Acar, Elif Öznur; Tansel, Aysıt. (2015). "Defining and Measuring Informality: The Case of Turkish Labor Market", Sosyoekonomi, Vol.24, No.28, pp.147-174.
Defining and Measuring Informality: The Case of Turkish Labor Market1
(2015) Acar, Elif Öznur; Tansel, Aysıt; 48566
In this study, we consider how informality can be defined and measured in the Turkish labor market. The empirical analysis consists of developing three alternative definitions of labor informality, and exploring the relevance and implications of each for the Turkish labor market using descriptive statistics and multivariate probit analysis of the likelihood of informality under each definition. We find that social security registration criterion is a better measure of informality in the Turkish labor market given its ability to capture key relationships between several individual and employment characteristics and the likelihood of informality.
Citation Count: İlalan, Deniz. (2017). "Determination of the Best Simple Moving Average By Stochastic Processes", Finansal Araştırmalar ve Çalışmalar Dergisi, Vol.9, No.16, pp.59-67.
Determination of the Best Simple Moving Average By Stochastic Processes
(2017) İlalan, Deniz
In this study, we consider one of the most popular technical indicators and try to determine the best fitting simple moving average to a given data. Here we utilize from a general mean reverting stochastic process where the mean is time dependent. We propose an identification algorithm which mainly concentrates on the normality of the residual terms after the data is demeaned from simple moving average and also provide evidence that our algorithm works quite well for determination of the “best” simple moving average.
Citation Count: Pirgaip, Burak. (2016). "Do Derivative Instruments Play a Role in Performance Theory? The Turkish Closed-End Funds Case", Applied Economics and Finance, vol.3, No.2, pp.136-145.
Do Derivative Instruments Play a Role in Performance Theory? The Turkish Closed-End Funds Case
(2016) Pirgaip, Burak; 252136
Market prices of closed-end funds (CEF) deviate from their net asset values (NAV) which is known as “CEF puzzle”. I attempt to show from the Turkish experience that CEF discounts/premia predict the corresponding CEF‟s future returns, in the light of managerial performance theory. But derivatives facet of the subject matter has not been uncovered so far. Therefore I hypothesize that performance of derivative user CEF are better estimators for discounts/premia than non-users. I show a significant positive relation between CEF discounts/premia and future NAV performance. However, this relation seems not to be more explicit for derivative user CEF than non-users
Citation Count: Akdoğan, Ece Ceylan (2015). "Economic exposure of emerging market firms", Actual Problems of Economics, Vol. 166, No. 4, pp. 67-74.
Economic exposure of emerging market firms
(2015) Akdoğan, Ece Ceylan; 17735
Although foreign exchange risk inherits more severe exposures for emerging market firms, past empirical research addressing foreign exchange exposure is mainly concentrated on firms operating in developed economies. This paper examines the impact of exchange rate fluctuations on firm value at an emerging market through focusing on economic exposure of Turkish listed firms. The findings indicate that depreciation of Turkish lira against the euro, the US dollar and the basket currency significantly deteriorates firm value in a current month while significantly enhances firm value during the next month. When the overall impact of Turkish lira depreciation on the value of Turkish companies is considered, it is observed that the weakening of the home currency has a positive effect on firm’s value.
Citation Count: Ilalan, Deniz, "Elliott wave principle and the corresponding fractional Brownian motion in stock markets: Evidence from Nikkei 225 index", Chaos Solitons & Fractals, Vol. 92, pp. 137-141, (2016).
Elliott wave principle and the corresponding fractional Brownian motion in stock markets: Evidence from Nikkei 225 index
(Pergamon-Elsevier Science LTD, 2016) İlalan, Deniz
This paper examines one of the vital technical analysis indicators known as the Elliott wave principle. Since these waves have a fractal nature with patterns that are not exact, we first determine the dimension of them. Our second aim is to find a linkage between Elliott wave principle and fractional Brownian motion via comparing their Hausdorff dimensions. Thirdly, we consider the Nikkei 225 index during Japan asset price bubble, which is a perfect example of an Elliott wave. (C) 2016 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.
Citation Count: Omay, Tolga; Apergis, Nicholas; Özçelebi, Hülya (2015). "ENERGY CONSUMPTION AND GROWTH: NEW EVIDENCE FROM A NON-LINEAR PANEL AND A SAMPLE OF DEVELOPING COUNTRIES", Singapore Economic Review, Vol. 60, No. 2.
ENERGY CONSUMPTION AND GROWTH: NEW EVIDENCE FROM A NON-LINEAR PANEL AND A SAMPLE OF DEVELOPING COUNTRIES
(2015) Omay, Tolga; Apergis, Nicholas; Özçelebi, Hülya
This paper investigates the relationship between economic growth and energy consumption through non-linear causality tests. Eight developing countries from Europe and Central Asia spanning the period 1993 to 2008 are selected for the purpose of panel empirical analysis. Panel unit root and panel cointegration tests with and without considering cross section dependency (CD) problems are implemented. Next, linear panel cointegration tests are employed and, finally, a two-regime Dynamic Panel Smooth Transition Vector Error Correction (PSTRVEC) model is estimated for testing the presence of non-linear short-and long-run causality. To this end, a new estimator, called the Dynamic Non-linear Pooled Common Correlated Effect Estimator (DNPCCEE) is proposed. The empirical findings indicate that short and long-run causalities are regime-dependent.
Citation Count: Tunç, C., Solakoğlu, M.N., Babuşcu, Ş., Hazar, A. (2018). Exchange rate risk and international trade: The role of third country effect. Economics Letters, 167, 152-155. http://dx.doi.org/ 10.1016/j.econlet.2018.03.030
Exchange rate risk and international trade: The role of third country effect
(Elsevier Science S A, 2018) Tunç, Cengiz; Solakoğlu, Nihat; Babuşcu, Şenol; Hazar, Adalet; 265921; 161529; 117425; 219046
Using the recently launched Exporter Dynamics Database of the World Bank, this paper empirically investigates the role of external exchange rate risk (third-country effect) on trade flows between countries. We find a strong positive influence of external exchange rate risk on exports to a specific destination. However, the effect is more observable in advanced destination countries, countries with low bilateral exchange rate volatility in comparison to external exchange rate volatility, and countries in which export is concentrated among a small number of firms.
Citation Count: Tunç, Cengiz...et al (2020). "Exchange Rate Volatility and Trade: External Exchange Rate Volatility Matters", Journal of International Commerce, Economics and Policy, Vol. 11, No. 2.
Exchange Rate Volatility and Trade: External Exchange Rate Volatility Matters
(2020) Tunç, Cengiz; Babuşcu, Şenol; Hazar, Adalet; Solakoğlu, Mehmet Nihat; 161529
We investigate the role of external exchange rate volatility in export in addition to the effect of bilateral exchange rate volatility using country-, sector-, and destination-specific detailed export data of the World Bank Exporter Dynamics Database. The results show that while the bilateral exchange rate volatility has a depressing effect on export, the external exchange rate volatility generates trade-promoting effect on export. However, the magnitude of the effect depends on trade intensity between countries. Furthermore, while the role of external exchange rate volatility diminished after the Global Financial Crisis, the effect of its volatility has become larger. Finally, external exchange rate volatility has a larger trade-promoting effect on export in the presence of high volatilities than the effect in the presence of low volatilities. © 2020 World Scientific Publishing Company.

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