Yazıcı, Mehmet
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Yazici, Mehmet
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Prof. Dr.
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myazici@cankaya.edu.tr
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İktisat
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PEACE, JUSTICE AND STRONG INSTITUTIONS
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Article Citation - WoS: 10Is the J-Curve Effect Observable in Turkish Agricultural Sector(Univ Zagreb, Fac Agriculture, 2006) Yazici, Mehmet; Yazıcı, Mehmet; İktisatThis paper investigates whether or not the J-curve hypothesis holds in Turkish agricultural sector. The analysis is conducted using the model the most commonly employed in j-curve literature. Based on the data covering the period from 1986: I to 1998: III, our results indicate that, following devaluation, agricultural trade balance initially improves, then worsens, and then improves again. This pattern shows that J-curve effect does not exist in Turkish agricultural sector. Another important finding is that devaluation worsens the trade balance of the sector in the long run, a result contradicting with the earlier findings for the Turkish economy as a whole.Article Türk Savunma Sanayiinde Offset Uygulamaları(2013) Temiz, Dilek; Yazıcı, Mehmet; Erdoğan, DuyguOffset uygulamalarının dunya ticareti icerisindeki yeri ve onemi giderek artmaktadır. Offset uygulamaları, ozellikle yeni teknolojilere ulaşmada ve yeni yatırımların finansmanında onemli bir arac olarak gundeme gelmektedir. Turkiyede offset uygulamalarından savunma sanayi projelerinde yaygın bir şekilde yararlanılmaktadır. Turk Silahlı Kuvvetlerinin ihtiyac duydu.u silah, arac ve gereclerin sa.lanmasında karşılaşılan yuksek maliyetleri azaltmak ve bu arac-gerecler icin yapılan ithalatın odemeler dengesinde meydana getirdi.i acı.ı en az duzeye indirmek amacıyla Turkiyede offset uygulamalarına son yıllarda a.ırlık verilmeye başlanmıştır. Bu calışmada, offset kavramı, offset turleri ve offsetin amacları hakkında bilgi verilerek, dunya ticareti ve gelişmekte olan bir ulke olarak Turkiye icin offset uygulamalarının onemi uzerinde durulmaktadır. Ayrıca, gecmişten gunumuze Dunyada ve Turkiyede offset uygulamaları ve offset projeleri hakkında da bilgi verilmektedir.Article Citation - WoS: 8Citation - Scopus: 11Firm Size and Job Creation: Evidence From Turkey(Routledge Journals, Taylor & Francis Ltd, 2017) Islam, M. Qamarul; Yazici, Mehmet; Dogan, ErgunThis study examines the relationship between firm size and job creation by using an extensive data set covering all non-farm Turkish businesses with 20 or more employees from 2003 to 2010. We find that small firms (firms with employees between 20 and 100 employees) have higher mean job flow rates (job creation, job destruction and net job creation rates) than large firms. Firm size and job flow rates are inversely related, and this relationship is especially prominent for firms with 50 employees or more. Although the overall pattern observed is also observed in both sectors, job creation rates in services are higher than the ones in manufacturing. The magnitudes of job destruction rates are comparable across sectors. Higher job creation rate in services but comparable job destruction rate results in higher net job creation rate in services. As for shares, only for smaller firms (20-49 and 50-99 size categories), job creation shares are greater than their shares in employment. But these firms have disproportionate job destruction shares as well. We also find that only the 20-49 category firms contribute to net job creation more than their share in employment. The smaller firms have high disproportionate shares in job creation and destruction in manufacturing and services as well.Article Impact of exchange rate and customs uinon on trade balance at commodity level of Turkey with EU (15)(Juraj Dobrila ,University Pula, 2011) Yazıcı, Mehmet; Islam, M. QamarulThis paper investigates the short-run and long-run impact of exchange rate and customs union on the trade balance at commodity-group level of Turkey with EU (15). Bounds testing approach is employed where a new strategy in the model selection phase is odopted ensuring that optimal model is selected from those models satisfying both diagnostics and cointegration. Results indicate that in the short-run exchange rate matters in determination of trade balance of 13 commodity groups out of 21 and customs union in 8 cases. Pattern of response of trade balance to exchange rate does not suggest a J-curve effect in any of cases. As for the long-run effect, neither exchange rate nor customs union has a statistically significant effect on trade balance of any of commodity groups, suggesting that those significant short-run effects don't last into long-runArticle The Effect of Energy Importation from Russia on Turkey's Current Account Deficit(2019) Erkılıç, Tuna; Temiz Dinç, Dilek; Gökmen, Aytaç; Yazıcı, MehmetEnergy is a fundamental input of social and economic development of a country. Yet, some of the countries in the world are rich in terms of energy and some countries lack the necessary amount of energy they require. The Republic of Turkey is situated at the threshold of Eurasia and is close to the richest energy basins of the world in its vicinity. However, Turkey is not self-sufficient in terms of energy and in order to correspond to its increasing energy necessity, it must import energy from neighboring countries, mainly from Russia. Moreover, the aim of this study is to analyze the energy trade of Turkey with Russia and its impact on its current account deficit. In order to analyze this issue, various econometric methods are utilized in this study. With respect to this analysis, it is evident that the energy importation of Turkey from Russia leads to an increase in its current account deficit.Article Tariff negotiations in Rubinstein bargaining model(2006) Yazıcı, MehmetThis paper applies Rubinstein bargaining model to tariff negotiations in order to predict the outcome of the bargaining. Following Dixit (1987) and Mayer (1981), we are able to express tariff strategies in the form of reaction functions. This results in a strategy space much larger than that considered in the literature and also in a smooth welfare frontier. Having applied Rubinstein Bargaining model, we have characterized the outcome of the tariff negotiations and given an example, which indicates that the negotiations will lead to free trade when countries are symmetric.Article Citation - WoS: 1Citation - Scopus: 1Model Selection Uncertainties and Model Averaging in Autoregressive Time Series Models(Isoss Publ, 2012) Islam, M. Qamarul; Yazıcı, Mehmet; Yazici, Mehmet; Islam, M.Qamarul; İktisatSelecting the correct lag order is necessary in order to avoid model specification errors in autoregressive (AR) time series models. Here we explore the problem of lag order selection in such models. This study provides an in-depth but easy understanding of the model selection mechanism to the practitioners in various fields of applied research. Several interesting findings are reported and through these the pitfalls of the model selection procedures are exposed. In particular, we show that the whole exercise of model selection and subsequent statistical inference invariably depends upon unknown entities, namely the true values of parameters in the model. The model averaging technique is proposed as an alternative to the common practice of model selection and it is shown that, as a result, the properties of post-model-selection estimates substantially improve.Article Citation - WoS: 4Citation - Scopus: 4Inference in Multivariate Linear Regression Models With Elliptically Distributed Errors(Taylor & Francis Ltd, 2014) Yazici, Mehmet; Islam, M. Qamarul; Yildirim, FetihIn this study we investigate the problem of estimation and testing of hypotheses in multivariate linear regression models when the errors involved are assumed to be non-normally distributed. We consider the class of heavy-tailed distributions for this purpose. Although our method is applicable for any distribution in this class, we take the multivariate t-distribution for illustration. This distribution has applications in many fields of applied research such as Economics, Business, and Finance. For estimation purpose, we use the modified maximum likelihood method in order to get the so-called modified maximum likelihood estimates that are obtained in a closed form. We show that these estimates are substantially more efficient than least-square estimates. They are also found to be robust to reasonable deviations from the assumed distribution and also many data anomalies such as the presence of outliers in the sample, etc. We further provide test statistics for testing the relevant hypothesis regarding the regression coefficients.Article Is there a J-curve effect in Turkish services?(2010) Yazıcı, MehmetThis paper explores the existence of the J-curve effect in Turkish services. The model of Bahmani-Oskooee (Rev Econ Stat 67:500-504, 1985), one of the most commonly employed model in the j-curve literature, is adopted. Using quarterly data from 1986: I to 1998: III, we find that, as a result of real depreciation of Turkish currency, YTL, services trade balance initially improves, then worsens and improves again in the short run. This is a pattern indicating that J-curve effect does not exist in Turkish services sector. We also find that depreciation of Turkish Lira improves the trade balance of the sector in the long run, a result consistent with earlier findings for the whole Turkish economy.Article Turkish Agricultural Import and Export Demand Functions: Estimates From Bounds Testing Approach(Routledge Journals, Taylor & Francis Ltd, 2012) Yazici, MehmetThis paper estimates the import and export demand functions for Turkish Agriculture based on the annual data for 1970-2003. The bounds testing approach to the cointegration and the error correction modeling is employed. We, however, adopt a new strategy in the model selection phase and select the optimal model from those models that satisfy both diagnostics and cointegration, thus, unlike the previous literature, ensuring that a statistically reliable and cointegrated model is picked up. Results indicate that for the import demand, relative price is a significant determinant in both short-run and long-run, nominal effective exchange rate matters only in the long-run, but domestic income is not at all a significant determinant for Turkish agricultural import demand. As for the export demand, while all determinants affect the export demand significantly in the short-run, given the relatively small share of Turkish agricultural exports within the world agricultural exports, none individually matters in the long-run.
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