Fractional Analysis of Dynamical Novel Covid-19 by Semi-Analytical Technique

Abstract

This study employs a semi-analytical approach, called Optimal Homotopy Asymptotic Method (OHAM), to analyze a coronavirus (COVID-19) transmission model of fractional order. The proposed method employs Caputo's fractional derivatives and Reimann-Liouville fractional integral sense to solve the underlying model. To the best of our knowledge, this work presents the first application of an optimal homotopy asymptotic scheme for better estimation of the future dynamics of the COVID-19 pandemic. Our proposed fractional-order scheme for the parameterized model is based on the available number of infected cases from January 21 to January 28, 2020, in Wuhan City of China. For the considered real-time data, the basic reproduction number is R0 approximate to 2.48293 that is quite high. The proposed fractional-order scheme for solving the COVID-19 fractional-order model possesses some salient features like producing closed-form semi-analytical solutions, fast convergence and non-dependence on the discretization of the domain. Several graphical presentations have demonstrated the dynamical behaviors of subpopulations involved in the underlying fractional COVID-19 model. The successful application of the scheme presented in this work reveals new horizons of its application to several other fractional-order epidemiological models.