A novel fractional model for the projection of households using wealth index quintiles

Abstract

Forecasting household assets provides a better opportunity to plan their socioeconomic activities for the future. Fractional mathematical models offer to model the asset-holding data into a piece of scientific evidence in addition to forecasting their future value. This research focuses on the development of a new fractional mathematical model based on the wealth index quintile (WIQ) data. To accomplish the objective, we used the system of coupled fractional differential equations by defining the fractional term with the Caputo derivative and verified it with the stability tests considering the steady-state solution. A numerical solution of the model was obtained using the Adams-Bashforth-Moulton method. To validate the model, we used real-time data obtained from the household series of surveys in Punjab, Pakistan. Different case studies that elucidate the effect of quintiles on the population are also presented. The accuracy of results between real-world and simulated data was compared using absolute and relative errors. The synchronization between the simulated results and real-time data verifies the formulation of the fractional WIQ model. This fractional model can be utilized to predict the approximation of the asset-holding of the households. Due to its relative nature, the model also provides the opportunity for the researchers to use the WIQs of their respective regions to forecast the households' socioeconomic conditions.