A novel fractional grey model applied to the environmental assessment in Turkey

Abstract

This study presents a novel fractional order grey model FGM (alpha,1) obtained by extending the grey model (GM (1,1)). For this, we generalize the whitenization first-order differential equation to fractional order by using the Caputo fractional derivative of order alpha. A real-world case study, scrutinize the economic growth influence on environmental degradation in Turkey, is performed to evaluate the significance of the projected model FGM (alpha,1) in contrast to the current classical GM. We apply autoregressive distributed lags bounds testing co-integration approach to empirically examine the long-run and short-run relation among economic growth, agriculture, forestry and fishing (AFF), electricity utilization and CO2 emissions. Using the new fractional order model, all the variables are forecasted in the forthcoming years until 2030. Findings disclose that electricity utilization and economic growth (GDP) accelerate emission of CO2 though in the long run agriculture, forestry, and fishing reduce the environmental pollution in Turkey.