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A mathematical model to optimize the available control measures of

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2021

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Baba, Isa Abdullahi
Nasidi, Bashir Ahmad
Baleanu, Dumitru
Saadi, Sultan Hamed

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Abstract

In the absence of valid medicine or vaccine for treating the pandemic Coronavirus (COVID-19) infection, other control strategies like; quarantine, social distancing, self- isolation, sanitation and use of personal protective equipment are effective tool used to prevent and curtail the spread of the disease. In this paper, we present a mathematical model to study the dynamics of COVID-19. We then formulate an optimal control problem with the aim to study the most effective control strategies to prevent the proliferation of the disease. The existence of an optimal control function is established and the Pontryagin maximum principle is applied for the characterization of the controller. The equilibrium solutions (DFE & endemic) are found to be locally asymptotically stable and subsequently the basic reproduction number is obtained. Numerical simulations are carried out to support the analytic results and to explicitly show the significance of the control. It is shown that Quarantine/isolating those infected with the disease is the best control measure at the moment.

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Covid-19, Optimal Control, Pontryaging Maximum Principle (PMP), Mathematical Model, Existence of Control, Stability Analysis

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Ecological Complexity

Volume

46

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