Bankacılık ve Sigortacılık Bölümü

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Doğrusal Olmayan Bootstrap Koentegrasyon Testleri: OECD Ülkeleri için Satın Alma Gücü Paritesi Üzerine Bir Uygulama
(2018) Uçar, Nuri; Güler, Hüseyin; 189073; Bankacılık ve Finans
Bu çalışmanın doğrusal olmayan panel eşbütünleşme testleri önermesinin dışında ekonometri literatürüne ikinci katkısı ise, doğrudan eşbütünleşme testleri elde etmek yerine, uzun dönem denklemden elde edilen hata tahminlerinin hata düzeltme modellerine uzun dönem değişken olarak eklenip, doğrusal olmayan panel eşbütünleşme testlerini bu modeller üzerinden geliştirecek bootstrap yöntemi öne sürmesidir. Uygulamada, Bootstrap hipotez testleri, Monte Carlo yöntemiyle kritik değerler üretilip, bu kritik değerlere göre değerlendirilmiştir. Bootstrap tahminler için -hem parametre hem de istatistikler- Matlab da kod yazılmıştır. Üretilen eşbütünleşme testleri OECD ülkeleri için, Satın Alma Gücü Paritesi için uzun dönem ilişkinin olup olmadığını test etmek için kullanılmışlardır. Bu uygulamadan elde edilen sonuçlara göre, "diğer ülkelerde" uzun dönem ilişki varken, G7 ülkelerinde ise gözlemlenmemiştir. Satın Alma Gücü Paritesinin iki gurup arasında farklılaşması, ilginç bir sonuçtur. Veri seti oluştururken 2008 krizi dikkate alınarak oluşturulmuştur. Krizin 5 yıl öncesi ve sonrası veri setine dâhil edilmiştir. Buradaki amaç kriz şokunu ortak bir faktör olarak düşünmek ve bu faktörün yatay kesitte bağımlılığa neden olduğunu dikkate alarak bootstrap yaklaşımı ile parametre tahminlerini gerçekleştirmektir. Ayrıca, kriz öncesi dönemi kapsayan veriler içinde Satın Alma Gücü Paritesi araştırılmıştır. Tüm ülkeleri dikkate aldığımızda, kriz dönemini içeren 2003.01-2013.01 dönemi ile kriz öncesi dönem farklılaşmaktadır. Kriz öncesi doğrusal olmayan eşbütünleşme gözükürken, kriz döneminde böyle bir şey söz konusu değildir. Krizin neden olduğu ekonomik şokun ülke ekonomilerinde enflasyon ve döviz kuru verilerinde birlikte kırılmalara (co-breaking) neden olması bu değişkenler arasında doğrusal olmayan eşbütünleşmenin varlığı yönünde beklentiye neden olabilir. Bu doğrusal olmayan yapının "diğer ülkelerde" varlığını göstermesi fakat "G7" ülkelerinde ise eşbütünleşmenin gözlemlenmemesi, bu ülkelerin bu süreçte birbirlerinden ayrıştıklarını da göstermektedir Ekonometri teorisi açısından, bu çalışmada ortaya atılan testlerin istatiksel ve asimptotik özellikleri geliştirilmeye açıktır. Ayrıca, burada önerilen doğrusal olmayan testler uygulama açısından sadece bootstrap yaklaşımı ile değil, diğer yatay kesit bağımlılığını dikkate alan panel veri analizi içerisinde de geliştirilmeye uygundur. Uygulama aşamasında ise, döviz kurundaki değişen varyans problemini dikkate alan test istatistikleri ışığında Satın alma Gücü Paritesi geliştirilebilir.
Doğrusal Olmayan Panel Eşbütünleşme Testleri Kullanılarak Fisher Etkisinin OECD Ülkeleri İçin Araştırılması
(2018) Uçar, Nuri; 189073; Bankacılık ve Finans
Enflasyon ve büyüme belirsizliklerinin enflasyon ve büyüme ile olan ilişkileri: Türkiye örneği
(Çankaya Üniversitesi, 2008) Omay, Tolga; 19320; Çankaya Meslek Yüksekokulu
Çalışmada iki değişkenli Genelleştirilmiş Otoregresif Koşullu Değişen Varyans modeli yardımıyla büyüme, enflasyon oranı ve belirsizliklerinin arasındaki Granger nedensellik ilişkileri incelenmiştir. Türkiye ekonomisine uygulanan çalışma, 1986:6-2007:1 dönemini kapsamakta ve bu dönem 3 farklı alt döneme (1986:6-1994:3/1994:5-2001:1/2003:3-2007:1) ayrılarak analiz genişletilmektedir. Tam dönem ve alt dönemler itibari ile elde edilen sonuçlar doğrultusunda, merkez bankasının fiyat istikrarını korumasına yönelik politika duruşunun optimal olduğu sonucuna varılmıştır.
Citation - WoS: 20
Citation - Scopus: 23
Nonlinearities in emerging stock markets: evidence from Europe's two largest emerging markets
(Routledge Journals, Taylor & Francis Ltd, 2008) Hasanov, Muebariz; Omay, Tolga; Omay, Tolga; Çankaya Meslek Yüksekokulu
Recent developments in time series analysis allow proper modelling of nonlinearities in economic and financial variables. A growing body of research was dedicated to investigation of potential nonlinearities in conditional mean of many economic and financial variables, mainly concentrating in developed economies. However, nonlinearities in financial variables in developing economies have not been fully examined yet. In this article we investigate potential nonlinearity and cyclical behaviour of stock returns in Europe's two largest emerging stock markets, mainly in the Greek and Turkish stock markets. Specifically, we use STAR family models, which allow to model nonlinearities in the conditional mean, for modelling monthly returns on stock exchange indices of the Athens Stock Exchange and Istanbul Stock Exchange. Although we find no nonlinearity in conditional variance, we do find strong evidence in favour of nonlinear adjustment of stock returns. It is found that allowing for nonlinearity in conditional mean results in a superior model and provides good out-of-sample forecasts, which contradicts to efficient market hypothesis.
Citation - WoS: 65
Citation - Scopus: 80
Re-examining the threshold effects in the inflation-growth nexus with cross-sectionally dependent non-linear panel: Evidence from six industrialized economies
(Elsevier Science Bv, 2010) Omay, Tolga; Omay, Tolga; Kan, Elif Oeznur; Çankaya Meslek Yüksekokulu
This paper analyzes the empirical relationship between inflation and output growth using a novel panel data estimation technique, Panel Smooth Transition Regression (PSTR) model, which takes account of the non-linearities in the data. By using a panel data set for 6 industrialized countries that enable us to control for unobserved heterogeneity at both country and time levels, we find that there exists a statistically significant negative relationship between inflation and growth for the inflation rates above the critical threshold level of 2.52%, which is endogenously determined. Furthermore, we also control cross-section dependency by using the CD test modified to non-linear context and remedy cross-section dependency with Seemingly Unrelated Regression Equations through Generalized Least Squares (SURE-GLS) and newly proposed Common Correlated Effects (CCE) estimation techniques. We find that these methods change the critical threshold value slightly. The estimated threshold values from these estimation methods are 3.18% and 2.42%, respectively. (C) 2010 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.
Rethinking Fisher Effect with New Keynesian Phillips Curve
(2019) Uçar, Nuri; 189073; Bankacılık ve Finans
I modify and enlarge the simple Fisher equation by including different inflation dynamics and multiple common unobservable factors. I investigate the long runrelationship by carrying out a series of estimators and models that have been developed recently. I observe that augmentation of Fisher equation leads to provide the supportive evidence for the long run relationship between nominal interest rate and inflation.
Citation - WoS: 148
Citation - Scopus: 156
Testing for unit root in nonlinear heterogeneous panels
(Elsevier Science Sa, 2009) Uçar, Nuri; Ucar, Nuri; Omay, Tolga; Omay, Tolga; 189073; Bankacılık ve Finans; Çankaya Meslek Yüksekokulu
We develop unit root tests for nonlinear heterogeneous panels where the alternative hypothesis is an exponential smooth transition (ESTAR) model, and provide their small sample properties. We apply our tests for investigating the income convergence hypothesis in the OECD sample. (C) 2009 Published by Elsevier B.V.
Citation - WoS: 5
Citation - Scopus: 7
Testing Stochastic Income Convergence In Seasonal Heterogeneous Panels
(Elsevier, 2010) Ucar, Nuri; Uçar, Nuri; Guler, Huseyin; 189073; Bankacılık ve Finans
In this paper we introduce a seasonal version of the Solow-Swan growth model and acquire an empirical income convergence equation. We take this equation as a basis to investigate whether income convergence exists in an OECD sample. To do this, we propose the test statistics under various asymptotic properties for some of the seasonal frequencies in the context of nonstationary heterogeneous panels. Critical values and moments of our statistics are generated and their finite sample performances are examined via Monte Carlo simulations. (C) 2009 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.
Citation - WoS: 9
The dynamics of financial literacy within the framework of personal finance: An analysis among Turkish University Students
(Academic Journals, 2011) Altıntaş, Kadir Murat; Altintas, Kadir Murat; 17561; Çankaya Meslek Yüksekokulu
Poor financial choices could have a number of negative consequences for young people. Financially illiterate graduates might be subject to various financial or judicial enforcements, such as bankruptcy, mortgage crises or financial frauds. In order to protect young adults from the costly consequences of financial illiteracy, the evaluation of financial literacy must be analyzed for transforming them into financially knowledgeable individuals by the help of financial education. The main purpose of this study is to reveal the special characteristics that influence the financial literacy of university students, as well as to evaluate their financial literacy level. Results show that university students do not have adequate knowledge on personal finance and financial management, in other words they need to enhance their financial literacy in order to protect their financial security at the medium and long run. In addition, the most important factors that affect the overall personal financial literacy of university students within the framework of the survey are class rank, age, family's income level, and students' discussion potential with their parents about financial matters.
Citation - WoS: 12
Citation - Scopus: 12
The effects of inflation uncertainty on interest rates: a nonlinear approach
(Routledge Journals, Taylor & Francis Ltd, 2010) Omay, Tolga; Omay, Tolga; Hasanov, Muebariz; Çankaya Meslek Yüksekokulu
In this article, we investigate the effects of inflation variability on short-term interest rates within a nonlinear smooth transition regression framework. The test results suggest that only the conditional mean of the inflation is a nonlinear process whereas the conditional variance is time variant but linear. Using the square root of conditional variance as a proxy for inflation risk, we estimate Fisher equation augmented with inflation risk. Although the estimated Fisher equations suggest that inflation risk reduces short-term interest rates, we find that the effects of inflation risk on interest rates are regime-dependent. Particularly, we find that the negative effects of inflation variability on nominal rates are greater in low-inflationary regimes when compared to high-inflationary regimes. On the other hand, it is found that both inflation and inflation uncertainty raise the expected inflation effect.
Citation - WoS: 31
Citation - Scopus: 36
The endogenous and non-linear relationship between terrorism and economic performance: Turkish evidence
(Taylor & Francis Ltd, 2009) Araz-Takay, Bahar; Omay, Tolga; Arin, K. Peren; Omay, Tolga; 177438; Çankaya Meslek Yüksekokulu
This paper investigates the macroeconomic effects of terror by using a novel data set from Turkey for the period of 1987:1 to 2004:4. This research contributes to the literature by controlling for the possible non-linear and endogenous relationship between political conflict and economic activity. Empirical evidence from both linear and non-linear models confirms that terrorism has a large significant negative impact on economic activity. Finally, the results from the non-linear model show that the impact of terrorism on the aggregate economy is more severe during expansionary periods, and that the impact of economic activity on terrorism is significant only in recessionary periods.
Türkiye için reaksiyon fonksiyonunun doğrusal olmayan modelle tahmin edilmesi
(Çankaya Üniversitesi, 2010) Omay, Tolga; Hasanov, Mübariz; 19320; Çankaya Meslek Yüksekokulu
In this paper we have estimated the monetary reaction function of the Central Bank of the Republic of Turkey. The originality of the paper is that we have used smooth transition functions (STR) that allow for proper modelling of nonlinearities and asymmetries in the relationship between variables under consideration. The estimated models suggest that the backward-looking instead of foreward-looking models best characterize the Central Bank’s reaction function, that is, the Central Bank reacted to past inflation rates rather than to future rates. This finding is in conformity with earlier research. We have found that the main purpose of expansionary policy of the Central Bank is to stabilize output whereas contractionary policies aimed only at reducing the inflation rate. The fact that the Central Bank has disregarded inflation in conducting expansionary policy and focused only on output stabilisation may explain why the Central Bank was not successful in fighting inflation. Besides, neither in expansionary policy regime nor in contractionary policy regime, real exchange rate is not targeted by the Central Bank. Moreover, budget deficit is targeted only in the contractionary policy regime

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