İktisadi ve İdari Bilimler Fakültesi

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Determinants of Poverty: Turkey and Multi-country Analysis
(2018) Yazıcı, Mehmet; Gökmen, Aytaç; Yazıcı, Mehmet; Gökmen, Aytaç; 144084; 52039; 17660; İktisat; Uluslararası Ticaret ve Finansman
In this study, the definition of poverty and the determinants of poverty are discussed in detail. After examination of the poverty situations of all income groups according to World Bank classification have been analyzed separately by the method of regression. According to the analysis conducted by the method of dynamic panel generalized least square regression, impact on current poverty from the previous year and the current growth of poverty has been observed, yet the effects of inflation on poverty are controversial. The exchange rate is not included in the regression because the two-main macroeconomic discussed determinants of poverty in the literature are used in the regression as control variables that there is multicollinearity between exchange rate, growth and inflation. This study points out that in the struggle against the poverty, the most important contribution is gained with economic growth. Since high volatility in price level and exchange rates prevents the growth, inflation and exchange rate policies assessed in the perspective of the importance of growth policy.
Determinants Of Turkish Mining Trade Balance With Eu(15): Estimates From Bound Testing Approach
(2016) Yazıcı, Mehmet; Islam, Qamarul; 144084; İktisat
We estimate the short-run and long-run determinants of the trade balance of Turkish Mining with EU (15) countries as well as impact of Customs Union (CU) agreement using the bounds testing approach to the cointegration and the error correction modeling. In selecting the optimal model, we follow Yazici and Islam (2011a, 2011b, 2012) and Yazici (2012) and adopt their model selection strategy where selection is made from the set of those models that satisfy both diagnostic tests and cointegrtion, thus ensuring the selection of a statistically reliable and cointegrated model. Estimation results based on the data for 1988-I to 2008-IV period indicate that in the determination of mining trade balance in the short-run only real domestic income matters. Long-run results indicate that real exchange rate and real domestic income variables have coefficients with expected signs but they are not statistically significant. Only statistically significant long-run determinant of mining trade balance is real EU(15) income. Dummy variable for the customs union agreement does not have a statistically significant coefficient, meaning that the agreement does not have a significant long-run effect on mining trade balance of Turkey with EU(15).
Does the Incomplete Information Matter with Export Quotas?
(2006) Yazıcı, Mehmet; 144084; İktisat
This study investigates whether or not incomplete information matters when the government adopts the export quotas in intervening in the oligopolistic export markets. Incomplete information the government has is about the unit-production cost of the domestic firm. It is shown first that quotas optimal under full information (full-information policy) result in Stackelberg outcome, the best outcome in a non-cooperative setting from the domestic firm`s point of view. When the full-information policy is implemented in the presence of incomplete information, it is found that no cost-type has an incentive to misrepresent itself as the other type. This means that full-information outcome will be achieved with incomplete information. Hence, incomplete information does not matter in the case of export quotas. This result, however, does not carry over to the case of more than one domestic firm.
Citation - Scopus: 0
Does the incomplete information matter with export quotas?
(2006) Yazici, M.; Yazıcı, Mehmet; 144084; İktisat
This study investigates whether or not incomplete information matters when the government adopts the export quotas in intervening in the oligopolistic export markets. Incomplete information the government has is about the unit-production cost of the domestic firm. It is shown first that quotas optimal under full information (full-information policy) result in Stackelberg outcome, the best outcome in a non-cooperative setting from the domestic firm's point of view. When the full-information policy is implemented in the presence of incomplete information, it is found that no cost-type has an incentive to misrepresent itself as the other type. This means that full-information outcome will be achieved with incomplete information. Hence, incomplete information does not matter in the case of export quotas. This result, however, does not carry over to the case of more than one domestic firm. © 2006 Asian Network for Scientific Information.
Exchange Rate And Bilateral Trade Balance Of Turkey With EU (15) Countries
(2014) Yazıcı, Mehmet; Islam, M. Qamarul; 144084; İktisat
This paper investigates the short-run and long-run impact of real exchange rate on the bilateral trade balance of Turkey with EU (15) countries. We’ve employed the bounds testing approach to the cointegration and the error correction modeling. Following Yazici and Islam (2011a, 2011b, 2012) and Yazici (2012), we select the optimal model from the set of those models that satisfy both diagnostic tests and cointegration. Thus, unlike the other studies, it is ensured that a statistically reliable and cointegrated model is picked up for estimation. Based on the quarterly data for 1982-I to 2001-IV period, estimation results indicate no evidence of J-curve in the short run in any of Turkey’s bilateral trade with EU(15) countries. In the long run, however, real depreciation of Turkish Lira improves the trade balance of Turkey with Austria, Denmark, France, Ireland, Italy, Sweden and UK.
Citation - Scopus: 2
Exchange rate and Turkish agricultural trade balance with EU (15)
(2012) Yazici, M.; Yazıcı, Mehmet; Islam, M.Q.; 144084; İktisat
This paper investigates the short-run and long-run impact of exchange rate on the trade balance of Turkish Agriculture with EU (15) countries. The bounds testing approach to the cointegration and the error correction modeling is employed. A new strategy in the model selection phase is adopted and the optimal model is selected from the set of those models that satisfy both diagnostic tests and cointegration. Thus, unlike the previous literature utilizing this approach, it is ensured that a statistically reliable and cointegrated model is picked up for estimation. Estimation results based on the data for 1988-I to 2008-IV period indicate that in the short-run real exchange rate variable affects agriculture trade balance in trade with EU(15) and depreciation of Turkish Lira improves the trade balance. As for the long-run impact of the exchange rate, depreciation of domestic currency has a statistically significant negative effect on trade balance of agriculture.
Citation - WoS: 7
Citation - Scopus: 10
Firm size and job creation: evidence from Turkey
(Routledge Journals, Taylor & Francis Ltd, 2017) Dogan, Ergun; Yazıcı, Mehmet; Islam, M. Qamarul; Yazici, Mehmet; 43080; 144084; İktisat
This study examines the relationship between firm size and job creation by using an extensive data set covering all non-farm Turkish businesses with 20 or more employees from 2003 to 2010. We find that small firms (firms with employees between 20 and 100 employees) have higher mean job flow rates (job creation, job destruction and net job creation rates) than large firms. Firm size and job flow rates are inversely related, and this relationship is especially prominent for firms with 50 employees or more. Although the overall pattern observed is also observed in both sectors, job creation rates in services are higher than the ones in manufacturing. The magnitudes of job destruction rates are comparable across sectors. Higher job creation rate in services but comparable job destruction rate results in higher net job creation rate in services. As for shares, only for smaller firms (20-49 and 50-99 size categories), job creation shares are greater than their shares in employment. But these firms have disproportionate job destruction shares as well. We also find that only the 20-49 category firms contribute to net job creation more than their share in employment. The smaller firms have high disproportionate shares in job creation and destruction in manufacturing and services as well.
Impact of exchange rate and customs uinon on trade balance at commodity level of Turkey with EU (15)
(Juraj Dobrila ,University Pula, 2011) Yazıcı, Mehmet; Islam, M. Qamarul; 144084; İktisat
This paper investigates the short-run and long-run impact of exchange rate and customs union on the trade balance at commodity-group level of Turkey with EU (15). Bounds testing approach is employed where a new strategy in the model selection phase is odopted ensuring that optimal model is selected from those models satisfying both diagnostics and cointegration. Results indicate that in the short-run exchange rate matters in determination of trade balance of 13 commodity groups out of 21 and customs union in 8 cases. Pattern of response of trade balance to exchange rate does not suggest a J-curve effect in any of cases. As for the long-run effect, neither exchange rate nor customs union has a statistically significant effect on trade balance of any of commodity groups, suggesting that those significant short-run effects don't last into long-run
Citation - WoS: 2
Citation - Scopus: 1
Impact of exchange rate and customs union on trade balance at commodity level of Turkey with eu (15)
(Routledge Journals, Taylor & Francis Ltd, 2011) Yazici, Mehmet; Yazıcı, Mehmet; Islam, M. Qamarul; 144084; İktisat
This paper investigates the short-run and long-run impact of exchange rate and customs union on the trade balance at commodity-group level of Turkey with EU (15). Bounds testing approach is employed where a new strategy in the model selection phase is odopted ensuring that optimal model is selected from those models satisfying both diagnostics and cointegration. Results indicate that in the short-run exchange rate matters in determination of trade balance of 13 commodity groups out of 21 and customs union in 8 cases. Pattern of response of trade balance to exchange rate does not suggest a J-curve effect in any of cases. As for the long-run effect, neither exchange rate nor customs union has a statistically significant effect on trade balance of any of commodity groups, suggesting that those significant short-run effects don't last into long-run.
Citation - WoS: 11
Citation - Scopus: 13
Import-Content of Exports and J-Curve Effect
(Routledge Journals, Taylor & Francis Ltd, 2010) Yazıcı, Mehmet; Yazici, Mehmet; Klasra, Mushtaq Ahmad; Klasra, Mushtaq Ahmad; 144084; İktisat; Uluslararası Ticaret ve Finansman
This article investigates how the response to devaluation of trade balance is affected, compared to J-curve hypothesis, by the presence of imported inputs in the production of exports. Using first the Almon lag technique and then the cointegration and the generalized impulse response function analysis, the J-curve effect is examined in two sectors of Turkish economy (manufacturing and mining), which use imported inputs at different rates. Based on the data covering the period from the first quarter of 1986 to the third quarter of 1998, our results indicate that in neither sector J-curve exists and that the violation of the J-curve effect is more severe in the sector with higher import content.
Citation - WoS: 4
Citation - Scopus: 4
Inference in multivariate linear regression models with elliptically distributed errors
(Taylor & Francis Ltd, 2014) Yıldırım, Fetih; Islam, M. Qamarul; Yildirim, Fetih; Yazıcı, Mehmet; Yazici, Mehmet; 6772; 144084; Ortak Dersler Bölümü; İktisat
In this study we investigate the problem of estimation and testing of hypotheses in multivariate linear regression models when the errors involved are assumed to be non-normally distributed. We consider the class of heavy-tailed distributions for this purpose. Although our method is applicable for any distribution in this class, we take the multivariate t-distribution for illustration. This distribution has applications in many fields of applied research such as Economics, Business, and Finance. For estimation purpose, we use the modified maximum likelihood method in order to get the so-called modified maximum likelihood estimates that are obtained in a closed form. We show that these estimates are substantially more efficient than least-square estimates. They are also found to be robust to reasonable deviations from the assumed distribution and also many data anomalies such as the presence of outliers in the sample, etc. We further provide test statistics for testing the relevant hypothesis regarding the regression coefficients.
Citation - WoS: 10
Is The J-Curve Effect Observable In Turkish Agricultural Sector?
(Univ Zagreb, Fac Agriculture, 2006) Yazici, Mehmet; Yazıcı, Mehmet; 144084; İktisat
This paper investigates whether or not the J-curve hypothesis holds in Turkish agricultural sector. The analysis is conducted using the model the most commonly employed in j-curve literature. Based on the data covering the period from 1986: I to 1998: III, our results indicate that, following devaluation, agricultural trade balance initially improves, then worsens, and then improves again. This pattern shows that J-curve effect does not exist in Turkish agricultural sector. Another important finding is that devaluation worsens the trade balance of the sector in the long run, a result contradicting with the earlier findings for the Turkish economy as a whole.
Is there a J-curve effect in Turkish services?
(2010) Yazıcı, Mehmet; 144084; İktisat
This paper explores the existence of the J-curve effect in Turkish services. The model of Bahmani-Oskooee (Rev Econ Stat 67:500-504, 1985), one of the most commonly employed model in the j-curve literature, is adopted. Using quarterly data from 1986: I to 1998: III, we find that, as a result of real depreciation of Turkish currency, YTL, services trade balance initially improves, then worsens and improves again in the short run. This is a pattern indicating that J-curve effect does not exist in Turkish services sector. We also find that depreciation of Turkish Lira improves the trade balance of the sector in the long run, a result consistent with earlier findings for the whole Turkish economy.
Citation - WoS: 3
Citation - Scopus: 4
Is there a J-curve effect in Turkish services?
(Springer, 2010) Yazici, Mehmet; Yazıcı, Mehmet; 144084; İktisat
This paper explores the existence of the J-curve effect in Turkish services. The model of Bahmani-Oskooee (Rev Econ Stat 67:500-504, 1985), one of the most commonly employed model in the j-curve literature, is adopted. Using quarterly data from 1986: I to 1998: III, we find that, as a result of real depreciation of Turkish currency, YTL, services trade balance initially improves, then worsens and improves again in the short run. This is a pattern indicating that J-curve effect does not exist in Turkish services sector. We also find that depreciation of Turkish Lira improves the trade balance of the sector in the long run, a result consistent with earlier findings for the whole Turkish economy.
Citation - WoS: 1
Citation - Scopus: 1
Model selection uncertainties and model averaging in autoregressive time series models
(Isoss Publ, 2012) Islam, M. Qamarul; Yazıcı, Mehmet; Yazici, Mehmet; 144084; İktisat
Selecting the correct lag order is necessary in order to avoid model specification errors in autoregressive (AR) time series models. Here we explore the problem of lag order selection in such models. This study provides an in-depth but easy understanding of the model selection mechanism to the practitioners in various fields of applied research. Several interesting findings are reported and through these the pitfalls of the model selection procedures are exposed. In particular, we show that the whole exercise of model selection and subsequent statistical inference invariably depends upon unknown entities, namely the true values of parameters in the model. The model averaging technique is proposed as an alternative to the common practice of model selection and it is shown that, as a result, the properties of post-model-selection estimates substantially improve.
Citation - Scopus: 0
Private charity and cooperation vs. non-cooperation
(2006) Yazici, M.; Yazıcı, Mehmet; 144084; İktisat
This study analyzes cooperative and non-cooperative outcomes in the context of private charity and compares them on efficiency grounds. Analysis is conducted in a model economy where there are two rich individuals and one poor and the rich care about the well-being of the poor. The results of the analysis suggest that, when making donations to the poor, the rich should get together and act cooperatively instead of behaving independently. Given the fact that there are many donors in reality and therefore it is difficult for them to get together for cooperation, this result implies a role for government to provide a mechanism for cooperation and justifies the support of the governments for charity organizations. © 2006 Asian Network for Scientific Information.
Tariff negotiations in Rubinstein bargaining model
(2006) Yazıcı, Mehmet; 144084; İktisat
This paper applies Rubinstein bargaining model to tariff negotiations in order to predict the outcome of the bargaining. Following Dixit (1987) and Mayer (1981), we are able to express tariff strategies in the form of reaction functions. This results in a strategy space much larger than that considered in the literature and also in a smooth welfare frontier. Having applied Rubinstein Bargaining model, we have characterized the outcome of the tariff negotiations and given an example, which indicates that the negotiations will lead to free trade when countries are symmetric.
The Effect of Energy Importation from Russia on Turkey's Current Account Deficit
(2019) Gökmen, Aytaç; Yazıcı, Mehmet; Gökmen, Aytaç; Yazıcı, Mehmet; 144084; Uluslararası Ticaret ve Finansman; İktisat
Energy is a fundamental input of social and economic development of a country. Yet, some of the countries in the world are rich in terms of energy and some countries lack the necessary amount of energy they require. The Republic of Turkey is situated at the threshold of Eurasia and is close to the richest energy basins of the world in its vicinity. However, Turkey is not self-sufficient in terms of energy and in order to correspond to its increasing energy necessity, it must import energy from neighboring countries, mainly from Russia. Moreover, the aim of this study is to analyze the energy trade of Turkey with Russia and its impact on its current account deficit. In order to analyze this issue, various econometric methods are utilized in this study. With respect to this analysis, it is evident that the energy importation of Turkey from Russia leads to an increase in its current account deficit.
Citation - WoS: 4
Citation - Scopus: 10
The Exchange Rate and the Trade Balances of Turkish Agriculture, Manufacturing and Mining
(Springer, 2008) Yazici, Mehmet; Yazıcı, Mehmet; 144084; İktisat
This paper investigates and compares the response to the exchange rate changes of trade balances of three Turkish sectors; agriculture, manufacturing and mining. The impact on trade balance of exchange rate changes is examined using the trade balance model employed in Bahmani-Oskooee [1985, Review of Economics and Statistics 67: 500]. Analysis is conducted based on the quarterly data from 1986: I to 1998: III. It is observed that in response to domestic currency depreciation trade balance of each of all three sectors first improves, then deteriorates and then improves again. Despite exhibiting similar pattern of reaction to the exchange rate change in the short run, long-run or overall response of trade balance differs across the sectors; while trade balances of both manufacturing and mining improve in the long run, agricultural trade balance worsens as a result of domestic-currency depreciation.
Citation - WoS: 0
Turkish agricultural import and export demand functions: estimates from bounds testing approach
(Routledge Journals, Taylor & Francis Ltd, 2012) Yazici, Mehmet; Yazıcı, Mehmet; 144084; İktisat
This paper estimates the import and export demand functions for Turkish Agriculture based on the annual data for 1970-2003. The bounds testing approach to the cointegration and the error correction modeling is employed. We, however, adopt a new strategy in the model selection phase and select the optimal model from those models that satisfy both diagnostics and cointegration, thus, unlike the previous literature, ensuring that a statistically reliable and cointegrated model is picked up. Results indicate that for the import demand, relative price is a significant determinant in both short-run and long-run, nominal effective exchange rate matters only in the long-run, but domestic income is not at all a significant determinant for Turkish agricultural import demand. As for the export demand, while all determinants affect the export demand significantly in the short-run, given the relatively small share of Turkish agricultural exports within the world agricultural exports, none individually matters in the long-run.

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