İktisadi ve İdari Bilimler Fakültesi

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Can Us Wage Increases Be Regarded as A\rleading Indicator for Bond Rates
(2020) Acar, Elif Oznur; Özşuca, Ekin Ayşe; 237965; 48566; 03.06. Uluslararası Ticaret ve Finansman; 03. İktisadi ve İdari Birimler Fakültesi; 01. Çankaya Üniversitesi
After the subprime meltdown, the Federal Reserve focused its attention on US non-\rfarm payroll data in order to pave the way for its fund rate hikes. As time went by,\rthe Federal Reserve deemed particularly one sub-component of this data, namely the\rincrements on average weekly wage growth as a proxy for in\ration and thus a plausible\rexplanation for raising the interest rates. In that aspect, we decide to elaborate on this\rissue further and examine whether this implemented strategy indeed had a re\rection in\rthe real market. For doing so, we intend to determine whether there is any causality\rrelation in either direction between US average weekly wage increases and 10-year\rTreasury Bond rates. We utilize the Toda-Yamamoto causality approach and come\rup with a statistically signicant result between wages and bond rates. For robustness,\rwe also consider the unemployment rate and consumption expenditures as independent\rvariables.
Citation - WoS: 21
Citation - Scopus: 25
An Empirical Analysis of Household Education Expenditures in Turkey
(Pergamon-elsevier Science Ltd, 2016) Cilasun, Seyit Mumin; Acar, Elif Oznur; Gunalp, Burak; 01. Çankaya Üniversitesi; 03.06. Uluslararası Ticaret ve Finansman; 03. İktisadi ve İdari Birimler Fakültesi; 03.07. Yönetim Bilişim Sistemleri
Using Turkish Household Budget Surveys from 2003, 2007 and 2012, this paper investigates the determinants of household education expenditures within an Engel curve framework. In particular, we estimate Tobit regressions of real educational expenditures by income groups using a number of household characteristics (i.e. rural residence, employment status, age, educational attainment of the household head, household size, share of female students and primary school students in the household, and total number of students in the household) to examine if and to what extent the determinants of educational expenditures differ by income groups; income elasticities of educational spending evolves over time; and children from middle-class and poor families can benefit enough from educational opportunities. The estimated expenditure elasticities have lower values for the top- and the bottom income quartiles while they have larger values for the middle-income quartiles. The results also show that for all income groups the expenditure elasticity of education increases over time, indicating that Turkish households allocates greater share of their budgets to education expenditures. (C) 2016 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.
Citation - WoS: 12
The Formal/Informal Employment Earnings Gap: Evidence From Turkey
(Emerald Group Publishing Ltd, 2016) Acar, Elif Oznur; Tansel, Aysit; 48566; 01. Çankaya Üniversitesi; 03.06. Uluslararası Ticaret ve Finansman; 03. İktisadi ve İdari Birimler Fakültesi
This study investigates the formal/informal employment earnings gap in Turkey. We focus on the earnings differentials that can be explained by observable characteristics and unobservable time-invariant individual heterogeneity. We first, estimate the standard Mincer earnings equations using ordinary least squares (OLS), controlling for individual, household, and job characteristics. Next we use, panel data and the quantile regression (QR) techniques in order to account for unobserved factors which might affect the earnings and the intrinsic heterogeneity within formal and informal sectors. OLS results confirm the existence of an informal sector penalty almost half of which is explained by observable variables. We find that formal-salaried workers are paid significantly higher than their informal counterparts and of the self-employed confirming the heterogeneity within the informal employment. QR results show that pay differentials are not uniform along the earnings distribution. In contrast to the mainstream literature which views informal self-employment as the upper-tier and wage-employment as the lower-tier, we find that self-employment corresponds to the lower-tier in the Turkish labor market. Finally, fixed effects estimation indicates that unobserved individual characteristics combined with controls for observable characteristics explain the pay differentials between formal and informal employment entirely in the total and the female sample. However, informal sector penalty persists in the male sample.
Citation - WoS: 11
Citation - Scopus: 15
Labor Mobility Across the Formal/Informal Divide in Turkey Evidence From Individual-Level Data
(Emerald Group Publishing Ltd, 2017) Acar, Elif Oznur; Tansel, Aysit; 48566; 01. Çankaya Üniversitesi; 03.06. Uluslararası Ticaret ve Finansman; 03. İktisadi ve İdari Birimler Fakültesi
Purpose - This paper, the first one to use individual-level Turkish panel data, examines the labor market transitions in Turkey along the formal/informal employment divide. The purpose of this paper is to contribute to the limited body of empirical evidence available on mobility and informality in the Turkish labor market. Design/methodology/approach - Toward this end, the authors use Turkish income and Living Conditions Survey panel data for 2006, 2007, 2008 and 2009 to compute the Markov transition probabilities of individuals moving across six different labor market states: formal-salaried (FS), informal-salaried, formal self-employed, informal self-employed, unemployed and inactive. In order to examine the nature of mobility patterns in more detail, the authors then estimate six multinomial logit models individually for each transition adopting a number of individual and employment characteristics as explanatory variables. Findings - The authors find evidence that mobility patterns are fairly similar across different time spans, the probability of remaining in initial state is higher than the probability of transition into another state for all the labor market states, except for unemployment, there is only very limited mobility into the FS state. Gender, education and sector of economic activity are observed to display significant effects on mobility patterns. The results reveal several relationships between the covariates and likelihood of variant transitions. Research limitations/implications - This study provides a comprehensive and detailed diagnosis of the Turkish labor market. The market is observed to display a rather static structure throughout the period considered. The results indicate that a well recognition of underlying dynamics may help policy makers to produce various effective tools for addressing informality. Originality/value - First study to analyze labor market mobility across formal/informal sectors using newly available panel data.

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