Browsing by Author "Bayar, A."

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Citation - Scopus: 21
Forecasting stock market volatility: Further international evidence
(2006) Balaban, E.; Bayar, A.; Faff, R.W.
This paper evaluates the out-of-sample forecasting accuracy of eleven models for monthly volatility in fifteen stock markets. Volatility is defined as within-month standard deviation of continuously compounded daily returns on the stock market index of each country for the ten-year period 1988 to 1997. The first half of the sample is retained for the estimation of parameters while the second half is for the forecast period. The following models are employed: a random walk model, a historical mean model, moving average models, weighted moving average models, exponentially weighted moving average models, an exponential smoothing model, a regression model, an ARCH model, a GARCH model, a GJR-GARCH model, and an EGARCH model. First, standard (symmetric) loss functions are used to evaluate the performance of the competing models: mean absolute error, root mean squared error, and mean absolute percentage error. According to all of these standard loss functions, the exponential smoothing model provides superior forecasts of volatility. On the other hand, ARCH-based models generally prove to be the worst forecasting models. Asymmetric loss functions are employed to penalize under-/over-prediction. When under-predictions are penalized more heavily, ARCH-type models provide the best forecasts while the random walk is worst. However, when over-predictions of volatility are penalized more heavily, the exponential smoothing model performs best while the ARCH-type models are now universally found to be inferior forecasters.
Citation - Scopus: 7
Liquidity and price volatility of cross-listed French stocks
(2005) Bayar, A.; Önder, Z.
The changes in the volatility and liquidity of French stocks are examined before and after their cross-listing on the German electronic market, the Xetra. The results are mixed in terms of the change in liquidity and volatility of stocks after cross-listing. It is found that for many stocks volatility of stock prices increases and liquidity declines after cross-listing. Furthermore, similar results are obtained when market volatility in the Paris Bourse is controlled for. These results suggest the migration of orders to the Xetra and the deterioration of the quality of the Paris Bourse with the cross listing of French stocks on the German market, especially for those stocks that are continuously traded on the Xetra. These results seem to be against the integration of the French and German markets during the period analysed in this study. Furthermore, the findings indicate that the trading scheme and the characteristics of the stock should be considered in examining the cross-listing effects. © 2005 Taylor & Francis.