Browsing by Author "Hasanov, Mubariz"

Now showing 1 - 2 of 2

Citation - WoS: 6
Citation - Scopus: 7
Hysteresis and Stochastic Convergence in Eurozone Unemployment Rates: Evidence From Panel Unit Roots With Smooth Breaks and Asymmetric Dynamics
(inst Badan Gospodarczych, 2022) Omay, Tolga; Hasanov, Mubariz; Corakci, Aysegul; 103299; 08.02. Çankaya Meslek Yüksekokulu; 03.03. İktisat; 03. İktisadi ve İdari Birimler Fakültesi; 08. Meslek Yüksekokulları; 01. Çankaya Üniversitesi
Research background: Studying the dynamic characteristics of unemployment rate is crucial for both economic theory and macroeconomic policies. Despite numerous research, the empirical evidence about stochastic behaviour of the unemployment rate remains disputable. It has been widely agreed that most economic variables, including unemployment rates, are characterized by both structural breaks and nonlinearities. However, a little work is done to examine both features simultaneously. Purpose of the article: In this paper, we analyse the stationarity properties of unemployment rates of Euro area member countries. Also, we aim to test stochastic convergence of unemployment rates among member countries. Our empirical procedures explicitly allow for simultaneous gradual breaks and nonlinearities in the series. Methods: This paper develops a new unit root test procedure for panel data, allowing for both gradual structural breaks and asymmetric adjustment towards equilibrium. We carry out Monte Carlo simulations to examine small sample performance of the proposed test procedure and compare it to the existing test procedures. We apply the newly proposed test to examine the stochastic properties of the unemployment rates of Euro-member countries as well as relative unemployment rates vis-a-vis the Eurozone unemployment rate. Findings & value added: We find that the newly developed test procedure outperforms existing tests in highly nonlinear settings. Also, these tests reject the null hypothesis of unit root in more cases when compared to the existing tests. We find stationarity in the series only after allowing for structural breaks in the data generating process. Allowing for nonlinear and asymmetric adjustment in addition to gradual breaks provides evidence of stationarity in more cases. Furthermore, our results suggest that relative unemployment rate series are stationary, providing evidence in favour of stochastic convergence in unemployment rates. Overall, our results imply a limited room for coordinated economic policy to fight unemployment in the Eurozone.
Citation - WoS: 20
Citation - Scopus: 22
The Relationship Between Inflation, Output Growth, and Their Uncertainties: Evidence From Selected Cee Countries
(M E Sharpe inc, 2011) Omay, Tolga; Hasanov, Mubariz; 08.02. Çankaya Meslek Yüksekokulu; 08. Meslek Yüksekokulları; 01. Çankaya Üniversitesi
In this paper, we examine causal relationships between inflation rate, output growth rate, inflation uncertainty, and output uncertainty for ten Central and Eastern European transition countries. For this purpose, we estimate a bivariate GARCH model that includes output growth and inflation rates for each country. Then we use conditional standard deviations of inflation and output to proxy nominal and real uncertainty, respectively, and perform Granger causality tests. Our results suggest that inflation rate induces uncertainty about both inflation rate and output growth rate, which is detrimental to real economic activity. At the same time, we find that output growth rate reduces macroeconomic uncertainty in some countries. In addition, we also examine and discuss causal relationships between the remaining variables.