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Ekonomi Bölümü Tezleri

Permanent URI for this collectionhttps://hdl.handle.net/20.500.12416/143

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Browsing Ekonomi Bölümü Tezleri by Department "Çankaya Üniversitesi, Sosyal Bilimler Enstitüsü, Ekonomi Alanı"

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    Master Thesis
    An empirical investigatıon of the effectiveness of monetary policy on the Nigerian stock exchange market
    (2014) Yola, Abdulnasir T.; 01. Çankaya Üniversitesi
    This thesis analysed the empirical relationship between monetary policy and the Nigerian stock exchange market for two sample periods. The first study period is from 1980-2012. The variables for the first study are monetary policy Rate (MPR), Market Capitalisation (MC), Gross Domestic Product and Investment proxy by Gross Capital Formation (GCF). The second study period is from 1985:1-2012:4 and the variables for the study are Broad Money Supply (M2), All Share Index (ASI) and Gross Domestic Product (GDP). The study employed the VAR methodology and analysed both the long run and causal relationship between the variables. Generalized Impulse Response and Variance Decomposition were also used. Evidence from the first study show presence of a long run equilibrium associationship between the variables and also there is a unidirectional VECM Granger causality from MC to MPR. Result from the second study shows no cointegrating relationship among the variables and also there is absence of causality. The impulse response of the second study also shows zero effect of a one standard deviation shock impulse response of M2 to ASI. The study concludes that despite the long run relationship monetary policy prove ineffective in the short run in Nigeria. The study recommends for economic reform and new policy innovations in both the Central Bank and Stock Market and also the Central Bank shall detect the standing block that prevent monetary policy transmission.
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    Publication
    An Impact of Exchange Rate Volatility on Nigeria’s Export: Using Ardl Approach
    (2014) Musa, Sulaiman; 01. Çankaya Üniversitesi
    This thesis seeks to empirically investigate the impact of exchange rate volatility on Nigeria export using ARDL approach. The empirical analysis carried out uses monthly data, covered period from 1999m1 to 2012m12. The result confirms that there is a long relationship between export, real exchange rate, volatility of exchange rate and foreign income. Besides, the volatility of real exchange rate has negative and significant effect on the export in both short and long run; this implies that high fluctuation of exchange rate volatility tends to hinder Nigeria export. However, The real exchange rate result shows positive and significant effect on the export in the long run while in the short run the export is negatively affected by real exchange rate, this implies that depreciation of Naira exchange rate is more effective in the long run to stimulate export activity in Nigeria whereas, in the short run depreciation of the Naira negatively hinders the Nigeria‟s export. The result of nominal exchange rate shows that in the in the short run volatility of nominal exchange rate has a positive and significant effect on the Nigeria‟s export, while in the long run foreign income has positive and significant effect on the Nigeria‟s export.
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    Master Thesis
    Exchange rate pass-through to domestic consumer prices in Nigerıa: a structural var approach
    (2013) Mohammed, Abdullahi Ahmed; 01. Çankaya Üniversitesi
    This study examines the degree and extent of exchange rate pass through into domestic consumer price inflation in the Nigerian economy between 1986Q1 and 2013Q1 using structural vector auto regression (SVAR) methodology. The results from impulse response analysis show that the exchange rate pass through to consumer prices is incomplete, relatively low and below the average range. Moreover, the speed of adjustment to structural shocks, such as the exchange rate, output, monetary policy rate and money supply shocks is high and effects of such shocks are highly volatile and therefore can potentially distort the status quo. The overall results offer supportive evidence in favor of the exchange rate channel, and monetary policy rate as a plausible track for monetary policy transmission mechanism and exchange rate pass through in the Nigerian economy. The results from forecast variance decomposition analysis show that the consumer price inflation own shocks, positive money supply shocks and output shocks retain dominance over other factors in explaining consumer price inflation in the Nigerian economy. Therefore, Nigeria ought for more effective monetary policy through conscious efforts by the monetary authorities than ever before, more particularly, the adoption of fully fledge inflation targeting. This will help to brin expectations of inflation down and thereby, the expectations channel will become more credible and stronger. This will in turn make the anticipated effects of monetary policy to require less aggressive monetary policy rate changes.