İktisat Bölümü
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Browsing İktisat Bölümü by Subject "Bounds Testing Approach"
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Article Citation Count: Yazıcı, M.; İslam, Q. (2016). "Determinants Of Turkish Mining Trade Balance With Eu(15): Estimates From Bound Testing Approach", Journal of Business Economics and Finance, Vol.5, No.2, pp.233-241.Determinants Of Turkish Mining Trade Balance With Eu(15): Estimates From Bound Testing Approach(2016) Yazıcı, Mehmet; Islam, Qamarul; 144084We estimate the short-run and long-run determinants of the trade balance of Turkish Mining with EU (15) countries as well as impact of Customs Union (CU) agreement using the bounds testing approach to the cointegration and the error correction modeling. In selecting the optimal model, we follow Yazici and Islam (2011a, 2011b, 2012) and Yazici (2012) and adopt their model selection strategy where selection is made from the set of those models that satisfy both diagnostic tests and cointegrtion, thus ensuring the selection of a statistically reliable and cointegrated model. Estimation results based on the data for 1988-I to 2008-IV period indicate that in the determination of mining trade balance in the short-run only real domestic income matters. Long-run results indicate that real exchange rate and real domestic income variables have coefficients with expected signs but they are not statistically significant. Only statistically significant long-run determinant of mining trade balance is real EU(15) income. Dummy variable for the customs union agreement does not have a statistically significant coefficient, meaning that the agreement does not have a significant long-run effect on mining trade balance of Turkey with EU(15).Article Citation Count: Yazıcı, Mehmet; Islam, M. Qamarul (2014). "Exchange Rate And Bilateral Trade Balance Of Turkey With EU (15) Countries", Journal of Business Economics and Finance, Vol.3, No.3, pp.341-356.Exchange Rate And Bilateral Trade Balance Of Turkey With EU (15) Countries(2014) Yazıcı, Mehmet; Islam, M. Qamarul; 144084This paper investigates the short-run and long-run impact of real exchange rate on the bilateral trade balance of Turkey with EU (15) countries. We’ve employed the bounds testing approach to the cointegration and the error correction modeling. Following Yazici and Islam (2011a, 2011b, 2012) and Yazici (2012), we select the optimal model from the set of those models that satisfy both diagnostic tests and cointegration. Thus, unlike the other studies, it is ensured that a statistically reliable and cointegrated model is picked up for estimation. Based on the quarterly data for 1982-I to 2001-IV period, estimation results indicate no evidence of J-curve in the short run in any of Turkey’s bilateral trade with EU(15) countries. In the long run, however, real depreciation of Turkish Lira improves the trade balance of Turkey with Austria, Denmark, France, Ireland, Italy, Sweden and UK.Other Citation Count: Yazıcı, Mehmet; Islam, M. Qamarul (2012). "Exchange rate and Turkish agricultural trade balance with EU (15)", Agricultural Economics Review, Vol. 13, No. 2, pp. 35-47.Exchange rate and Turkish agricultural trade balance with EU (15)(2012) Yazıcı, Mehmet; Islam, M. Qamarul; 144084This paper investigates the short-run and long-run impact of exchange rate on the trade balance of Turkish Agriculture with EU (15) countries. The bounds testing approach to the cointegration and the error correction modeling is employed. A new strategy in the model selection phase is adopted and the optimal model is selected from the set of those models that satisfy both diagnostic tests and cointegration. Thus, unlike the previous literature utilizing this approach, it is ensured that a statistically reliable and cointegrated model is picked up for estimation. Estimation results based on the data for 1988-I to 2008-IV period indicate that in the short-run real exchange rate variable affects agriculture trade balance in trade with EU(15) and depreciation of Turkish Lira improves the trade balance. As for the long-run impact of the exchange rate, depreciation of domestic currency has a statistically significant negative effect on trade balance of agriculture.Article Citation Count: Yazıcı, M., Islam, M.Q. (2011). Impact of exchange rate and customs uinon on trade balance at commodity level of Turkey with EU (15). Ekonomska Istrazivanja-Economic Research, 24(3), 75-85.Impact of exchange rate and customs uinon on trade balance at commodity level of Turkey with EU (15)(Juraj Dobrila ,University Pula, 2011) Yazıcı, Mehmet; Islam, M. Qamarul; 144084This paper investigates the short-run and long-run impact of exchange rate and customs union on the trade balance at commodity-group level of Turkey with EU (15). Bounds testing approach is employed where a new strategy in the model selection phase is odopted ensuring that optimal model is selected from those models satisfying both diagnostics and cointegration. Results indicate that in the short-run exchange rate matters in determination of trade balance of 13 commodity groups out of 21 and customs union in 8 cases. Pattern of response of trade balance to exchange rate does not suggest a J-curve effect in any of cases. As for the long-run effect, neither exchange rate nor customs union has a statistically significant effect on trade balance of any of commodity groups, suggesting that those significant short-run effects don't last into long-runArticle Citation Count: Yazıcı, Mehmet; Qamarul, Islam M. (2011). "Impact of exchange rate and customs union on trade balance at commodity level of Turkey with eu (15)", Ekonomska Istrazivanja, Vol. 24, No. 3, pp. 75-85.Impact of exchange rate and customs union on trade balance at commodity level of Turkey with eu (15)(2011) Yazıcı, Mehmet; Qamarul, Islam M.; 144084This paper investigates the short-run and long-run impact of exchange rate and customs union on the trade balance at commodity-group level of Turkey with EU (15). Bounds testing approach is employed where a new strategy in the model selection phase is adopted ensuring that optimal model is selected from those models satisfying both diagnostics and cointegration. Results indicate that in the short-run exchange rate matters in determination of trade balance of 13 commodity groups out of 21 and customs union in 8 cases. Pattern of response of trade balance to exchange rate does not suggest a J-curve effect in any of cases. As for the long-run effect, neither exchange rate nor customs union has a statistically significant effect on trade balance of any of commodity groups, suggesting that those significant short-run effects don't last into long-run.
