Scopus İndeksli Yayınlar Koleksiyonu
Permanent URI for this collectionhttps://hdl.handle.net/20.500.12416/8651
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Article Citation - WoS: 22Citation - Scopus: 25Optimal Control Model for the Transmission of Novel Covid-19(Tech Science Press, 2021) Nasidi, Bashir Ahmad; Baleanu, Dumitru; Baba, Isa AbdullahiAs the corona virus (COVID-19) pandemic ravages socio-economic activities in addition to devastating infectious and fatal consequences, optimal control strategy is an effective measure that neutralizes the scourge to its lowest ebb. In this paper, we present a mathematical model for the dynamics of COVID-19, and then we added an optimal control function to the model in order to effectively control the outbreak. We incorporate three main control efforts (isolation, quarantine and hospitalization) into the model aimed at controlling the spread of the pandemic. These efforts are further subdivided into five functions; u(1)(t) (isolation of the susceptible communities), u(2)(t) (contact track measure by which susceptible individuals with contact history are quarantined), u(3)(t) (contact track measure by which infected individualsare quarantined), u(4)(t) (control effort of hospitalizing the infected I-1) and u(5)(t) (control effort of hospitalizing the infected I-2). We establish the existence of the optimal control and also its characterization by applying Pontryaging maximum principle. The disease free equilibrium solution (DFE) is found to be locally asymptotically stable and subsequently we used it to obtain the key parameter; basic reproduction number. We constructed Lyapunov function to which global stability of the solutions is established. Numerical simulations show how adopting the available control measures optimally, will drastically reduce the infectious populations.Article Citation - WoS: 23Citation - Scopus: 26Epidemiological Analysis of the Coronavirus Disease Outbreak With Random Effects(Tech Science Press, 2021) Ahmad, Aqeel; Akgul, Ali; Saleem, Muhammad Umer; Naeem, Muhammad; Baleanu, Dumitru; Farman, MuhammadToday, coronavirus appears as a serious challenge to the whole world. Epidemiological data of coronavirus is collected through media and web sources for the purpose of analysis. New data on COVID-19 are available daily, yet information about the biological aspects of SARS-CoV-2 and epidemiological characteristics of COVID-19 remains limited, and uncertainty remains around nearly all its parameters' values. This research provides the scientific and public health communities better resources, knowledge, and tools to improve their ability to control the infectious diseases. Using the publicly available data on the ongoing pandemic, the present study investigates the incubation period and other time intervals that govern the epidemiological dynamics of the COVID-19 infections. Formulation of the testing hypotheses for different countries with a 95% level of confidence, and descriptive statistics have been calculated to analyze in which region will COVID-19 fall according to the tested hypothesized mean of different countries. The results will be helpful in decision making as well as in further mathematical analysis and control strategy. Statistical tools are used to investigate this pandemic, which will be useful for further research. The testing of the hypothesis is done for the differences in various effects including standard errors. Changes in states' variables are observed over time. The rapid outbreak of coronavirus can be stopped by reducing its transmission. Susceptible should maintain safe distance and follow precautionary measures regarding COVID-19 transmission.Article Citation - WoS: 29Citation - Scopus: 33Dynamical Transmission of Coronavirus Model With Analysis and Simulation(Tech Science Press, 2021) Baleanu, Dumitru; Akgul, Ali; Ahmad, Aqeel; Saleem, Muhammad Umer; Farman, MuhammadCOVID-19 acts as a serious challenge to the whole world. Epidemiological data of COVID-19 is collected through media and web sources to analyze and investigate a system of nonlinear ordinary differential equation to understand the outbreaks of this epidemic disease. We analyze the diseases free and endemic equilibrium point including stability of the model. The certain threshold value of the basic reproduction number R-0 is found to observe whether population is in disease free state or endemic state. Moreover, the epidemic peak has been obtained and we expect a considerable number of cases. Finally, some numerical results are presented which show the effect of parameters estimation and different step size on our obtained solutions at the real data of some countries to check the actual behavior of the COVID-19 at different countries.Article Citation - WoS: 88Citation - Scopus: 122Analysis and Dynamics of Fractional Order Mathematical Model of Covid-19 in Nigeria Using Atangana-Baleanu Operator(Tech Science Press, 2021) Shaikh, Amjad S.; Ibrahim, Mohammed O.; Nisar, Kottakkaran Sooppy; Baleanu, Dumitru; Khan, Ilyas; Abioye, Adesoye I.; Peter, Olumuyiwa J.We propose a mathematical model of the coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) to investigate the transmission and control mechanism of the disease in the community of Nigeria. Using stability theory of differential equations, the qualitative behavior of model is studied. The pandemic indicator represented by basic reproductive number R-0 is obtained from the largest eigenvalue of the next-generation matrix. Local as well as global asymptotic stability conditions for the disease-free and pandemic equilibrium are obtained which determines the conditions to stabilize the exponential spread of the disease. Further, we examined this model by using Atangana-Baleanu fractional derivative operator and existence criteria of solution for the operator is established. We consider the data of reported infection cases from April 1, 2020, till April 30, 2020, and parameterized the model. We have used one of the reliable and efficient method known as iterative Laplace transform to obtain numerical simulations. The impacts of various biological parameters on transmission dynamics of COVID-19 is examined. These results are based on different values of the fractional parameter and serve as a control parameter to identify the significant strategies for the control of the disease. In the end, the obtained results are demonstrated graphically to justify our theoretical findings.Article Citation - WoS: 19Citation - Scopus: 18Awareness as the Most Effective Measure To Mitigate the Spread of Covid-19 in Nigeria(Tech Science Press, 2020) Baleanu, Dumitru; Baba, Isa AbdullahiA mathematical model consisting of a system of four nonlinear ordinary differential equations is constructed. Our aim is to study the dynamics of the spread of COVID-19 in Nigeria and to show the effectiveness of awareness and the need for relevant authorities to engage themselves more in enlightening people on the significance of the available control measures in mitigating the spread of the disease. Two equilibrium solutions; Disease free equilibrium and Endemic equilibrium solutions were calculated and their global stability analysis was carried out. Basic reproduction ratio (R-0) was also obtained, in this research R-0 = 3.0784. Data obtained for Nigeria is used to conduct numerical simulations in order to support the analytic result and to show the significance of awareness in controlling the disease spread. From the simulation result, it was shown that to mitigate the spread of COVID-19 in Nigeria there is need for serious awareness programs to enlighten people on the available control measures; social distancing, self-isolation, use of personal protective equipment (such as face mask, hand globes, overall gown, etc.), regular hand washing using soap or sanitizer, avoiding having contact with person showing the symptoms and reporting any suspected case.