Bankacılık ve Finans Bölümü Yayın Koleksiyonu
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Article Unit Root Testing in the Presence of Mean Reverting Jumps: Evidence From US T-Bond Yields(Walter de Gruyter GmbH, 2019) Ilalan, Deniz; Ozel, OzgurMean reversion of financial data, especially interest rates is often tested by linear unit root tests. However, there are times where linear unit root test results can be misleading especially when mean reverting jump formations are at stage. Considering this framework, we provide a new unit root testing methodology and compute its asymptotic critical values via Monte Carlo simulation. Moreover, we numerically compare the power of this generalized mean reversion test with the pioneering linear unit root test in the literature namely the Augmented Dickey Fuller (ADF) test. We deduce that our test is a refinement of ADF test with a higher power. Weapply our findings to US 10-year Treasury bond yields. We aim to shed light to the discussion among researchers whether interest rates can sometimes revert to a long-term constant mean or not from an unorthodox point of view.Article Citation - WoS: 2Citation - Scopus: 2An Alternative Mean Reversion Test for Interest Rates(Central Bank Republic Turkey, 2018) Ozel, Ozgur; Ilalan, DenizA number of empirical studies assert that interest rates are governed by unit root processes rejecting any form of reversion to a long term mean by resorting to certain tests, among which the Augmented Dickey Fuller (ADF) is the most widely used one. In this study, we propose an alternative testing methodology that can be applied along with ADF test, in the sense that there are times where it can capture stationarity when the other fails to do so. Moreover, our test has more power than ADF test. As an application to real-data, we consider 10-year US and Turkish T-bond rates. (C) 2017 Central Bank of The Republic of Turkey. Production and hosting by Elsevier B.V.Article Asymmetric Smooth Transition in Cds Spreads: Evidence From Latvia(Allied Business Academies, 2019) Akdoğan, E.C.; Akdoğan, Ece Ceylan; 17735; Bankacılık ve FinansThis paper investigates the predictability of CDS premiums and thus addresses weak form informational efficiency of CDS markets through examining the statistical properties of Latvian CDS spreads in-between 01:2006-08:2017 by concentrating on stationarity issues. The findings for the Augmented Dickey Fuller test fail to reject the presence of unit root indicating that the CDS market is weak form efficient while nonlinear tests of Kapatenios, Snell and Shin, and Sollis claim the opposite, demonstrating a smooth transition in general, and asymmetric smooth transition in particular. Additionally, the results of Perron and Zivot-Andrews tests identify no structural break as well for robustness. These results underline the necessity of accounting for nonlinearities in CDS premiums to grasp the predictability dynamics better. © 2019, Academy of Accounting and Financial Studies Journal.Article Citation - Scopus: 1Economic Exposure of Emerging Market Firms(National Academy of Management, 2015) Karadagli, E.C.; Akdoğan, Ece Ceylan; 17735; Bankacılık ve FinansAlthough foreign exchange risk inherits more severe exposures for emerging market firms, past empirical research addressing foreign exchange exposure is mainly concentrated on firms operating in developed economies. This paper examines the impact of exchange rate fluctuations on firm value at an emerging market through focusing on economic exposure of Turkish listed firms. The findings indicate that depreciation of Turkish lira against the euro, the US dollar and the basket currency significantly deteriorates firm value in a current month while significantly enhances firm value during the next month. When the overall impact of Turkish lira depreciation on the value of Turkish companies is considered, it is observed that the weakening of the home currency has a positive effect on firm’s value. © Ece C. Karadagli, 2015.Book Part Citation - WoS: 1Globalization, Firm Performance and Group Affiliation in Emerging Markets: Evidence From Turkey(Asers Publishing, 2013) Akdoğan, Ece Ceylan; Karadagli, Ece Ceylan; 17735; Bankacılık ve FinansAlthough the process of globalization deeply affects businesses in all aspects, unfortunately, the firm level effects of globalization are highly unexplored in the literature. This research aims to explore how the overall globalization level of a country as well as her economic, her political and her social globalization levels affect the performance of both the group affiliated and the unaffiliated firms, operating in this business environment by using pooled panel analysis. To search for the potential differences that may prevail between the firm performance effects of globalization on the group affiliated firms and on the unaffiliated firms, it focuses on Turkish listed companies for the period 2002-2009. The findings of the study indicate that while globalization improves the stock returns of both the group affiliated and the unaffiliated firms, it deteriorates the operational income of both groups of firms. The findings also imply that although the effects of economic and political globalization do not seem to differentiate much between the group affiliated and the unaffiliated firms, social globalization may be argued to affect the operating incomes and the firm growth rates of group affiliated and unaffiliated firms differently. Last but not least, the findings suggest that the most influential dimension of globalization in terms of its effects on firm performance for Turkish companies seems to be the economic globalization.Article Citation - Scopus: 2Profitability Effects of Cash Conversion Cycle: Evidence From Turkish Companies(National Academy of Management, 2013) Karadagli, E.This paper examines the impact of cash conversion cycle and its single components, specifically accounts collection period, inventory turnover in days and accounts payable period, on firm profitability as measured by operating income and stock market return by using pooled panel analysis for the period of 2001-2010. Besides, the possible effects of group affiliation on the impact of CCC and its components on firm profitability are also investigated. The findings suggest that shortening of CCC and its single components, including accounts payable period, improve firm profitability in terms of both accounting and market measures of performance. The findings also indicate that both the affiliated and the unaffiliated firms can enhance firm performance in terms of both performance measures through shortening their CCCs, this effect is stronger for unaffiliated firms and hence working capital management seems to be more important for them. © Ece Karadagli, 2013.Article Citation - Scopus: 2A Nonlinear Analysis of Weak Form Efficiency of Stock Index Futures Markets in Cce Emerging Economies(2012) Karadagli, E.C.; Donmez, M.G.; 17735Futures markets, through carrying considerable impact on the spot market, serving such functions as price discovery and risk reduction for all market participants, and providing beneficial effects on the economic growth process especially in emerging countries, appear to be a vital part of a well-functioning economy. Accordingly, this paper examines weak form futures market efficiency of five CEE Emerging Economies. For this purpose, besides the traditional unit root tests, to account for nonlinearities in financial data, we employ nonlinear unit root tests along with their panel extensions. The results suggest that although the examined markets are efficient in linear sense, inefficiencies prevail when we account for nonlinearities. These findings imply that the examined countries, especially Poland and Turkey, need to take precautions to overcome the obstacles in their prevailing market structures, especially inherited in the sources of nonlinearity in the financial data, and to ensure a more efficient futures markets. © EuroJournals Publishing, Inc. 2012.Article An Outline of Skilled Emigration from Turkey to OECD Countries: A Panel Data Analysis(2017) Acar, Elif Öznur; 48566Turkey provides rich evidence for the current international migration trends given its economic and demographic dynamics. The number of people moving overseas to settle permanently has been following an increasing trend in the recent decades, particularly remarkable for skilled and female groups. However, given the micro-level data limitations the migration outlook of Turkey is still quite bleak. The aim of this paper is to fill this gap and analyze the relationship between migration and human capital in the context of Turkish immigrants. First, aggregate trends of the Turkish emigrants in the 20 OECD destination countries by gender and educational level over the 1980-2010 period are examined using the IAB Brain Drain dataset. Next, a random effects panel estimation is applied to scrutinize the underlying dynamics of observed migration patterns adopting economic size, unemployment, demographic profile, urbanization and proximity as explanatory variables. The results reveal that gender, time and education are found as significantly related to international mobility trends, and the substantially left-skewedness of the distribution of Turkish emigrants along educational level is gradually fading away over time.Article The effects of terrorist activities on foreign direct investment: nonlinear Evidence(2013) Omay, Tolga; Takay Araz, Bahar; Ilalan, Deniz; 19320In this study, we examine the relationship between foreign direct investment and terrorist incidents that took place in Turkey for the period from 1991:12 to 2003:12. This research contributes to the literature by checking for a possible non-linear relationship between terrorism and foreign direct investment. The data used to measure the intensity of terrorism were collected from the newspapers of Turkey, and therefore are limited to the direct signals given to the market. Empirical evidence from both linear and non-linear models confirms that terrorism has a large significant negative impact on foreign direct investment. With respect to the nonlinear model, the impact of terrorism on the foreign direct investment is more severe during periods of high terrorism when the intensity of terrorism passes the threshold level 3.725.Article The Effects of Globalization on Firm Performance in Emerging Markets: Evidence From Emerging-7 Countries(2012) Karadağlı, EceAlthough there exists a wide array of literature regarding almost every aspect of globalization at macro level, surprisingly, the micro level of the subject area seems to be a little ignored and consequently, almost nothing is known about the impact of globalization on firm performance/value. In an attempt to contribute to fulfilling this gap, this research focuses on the impact of the overall globalization level of a country and its single dimensions, specifically her economic, her political and her social globalization levels on firm performance which is measured by the stock market index returns for “Emerging-7 (E7)” countries, specifically Brazil, China, India, Indonesia, Mexico, Russia and Turkey, for the period 1998-2009 by using panel data estimation. The findings suggest that the overall level of globalization significantly improves firm performance. Besides, the single dimensions of globalization are also found to have value enhancing effects though the result for economic globalization is insignificant at conventional levels. Additionally, the political globalization seems to be the most promising dimension of globalization with regard to performance enhancing prospects for firms.Article Citation - WoS: 2Citation - Scopus: 3How Globalization Affects the Operational Efficiency of Emerging Market Firms?: a Comparative Analysis on Turkish Smes(Univ Oviedo, 2018) Akdogan, Ece Ceylan; 17735This paper examines the impact of globalization on the operational efficiency of emerging market firms by concentrating on the financial outcomes of a firm's main operations through focusing on operating income and cash conversion cycle as well as on their possible causes in an emerging market, Turkey. The findings indicate that globalization significantly deteriorates the operating income and lengthens the cash conversion cycle of Turkish firms. Besides, globalization is found to increase sales of SMEs and decrease sales of large companies significantly and the impact on operating income of large companies is observed to be stronger. Globalization is also found to lead a softening in Turkish firm's terms of sales and enable Turkish SMEs to benefit from better terms of purchase.Book Part Corporate Diversification and Internal Capital Markets: Evidence from the Turkish Business Groups(2004) Gönenç, Halit; Kan, Özgür Berk; Karadağlı, Ece C.; 17735We compare the performance of firms affiliated with diversified business groups with the performance of unaffiliated firms in an emerging market, Turkey. Our findings indicate that group affiliation improves firm's accounting performance, but not stock market performance. Furthermore, we find that firm's accounting (but not stock market) performance increases with the level of group diversification. Our results also indicate that having a group affiliated bank affects the accounting performance measures of the group firms positively, but the market value of the group affiliated firms negatively, supporting the misallocation of capital hypothesis. In addition, having a group affiliated media institution is found to affect the performance of the group firms positively. More importantly, we examine the frequency of seasoned equity issue offerings with the forms of cash (right and restricted right) issues and bonus issues to address the question of whether group affiliated firms create an internal capital market. We show that unaffiliated firms are more bound to external markets to raise capital while the affiliated firms use internal capital markets. The views expressed in these papers are those of the author(s), they do not reflect the opinions of LECG, LLC and should not be construed as representing the positions of other experts at LECG, LLC.Article Do Derivative Instruments Play a Role in Performance Theory? The Turkish Closed-End Funds Case(2016) Pirgaip, Burak; 252136Market prices of closed-end funds (CEF) deviate from their net asset values (NAV) which is known as “CEF puzzle”. I attempt to show from the Turkish experience that CEF discounts/premia predict the corresponding CEF‟s future returns, in the light of managerial performance theory. But derivatives facet of the subject matter has not been uncovered so far. Therefore I hypothesize that performance of derivative user CEF are better estimators for discounts/premia than non-users. I show a significant positive relation between CEF discounts/premia and future NAV performance. However, this relation seems not to be more explicit for derivative user CEF than non-usersArticle Determination of the Best Simple Moving Average By Stochastic Processes(2017) İlalan, DenizIn this study, we consider one of the most popular technical indicators and try to determine the best fitting simple moving average to a given data. Here we utilize from a general mean reverting stochastic process where the mean is time dependent. We propose an identification algorithm which mainly concentrates on the normality of the residual terms after the data is demeaned from simple moving average and also provide evidence that our algorithm works quite well for determination of the “best” simple moving average.Article Defining and Measuring Informality: The Case of Turkish Labor Market1(2015) Acar, Elif Öznur; Tansel, Aysıt; 48566In this study, we consider how informality can be defined and measured in the Turkish labor market. The empirical analysis consists of developing three alternative definitions of labor informality, and exploring the relevance and implications of each for the Turkish labor market using descriptive statistics and multivariate probit analysis of the likelihood of informality under each definition. We find that social security registration criterion is a better measure of informality in the Turkish labor market given its ability to capture key relationships between several individual and employment characteristics and the likelihood of informality.Book Part Ums 1 Finansal Tabloların Sunuluşu Standardının Yerini Alması Beklenen Ufrs X Genel Sunum Ve Açıklama Standardı Tas- Lağı (Ed/2019/7) Üzerine Bir Değerlendirme(Gazi Kitabevi, 2022) Öztürk, Can; Akdoğan, Nalan; Özerhan, Yıldız; Sultanoğu, BanuArticle An examination of the major behavioral aspects of distribution channels in an export channel design(2012) Karadağlı, Ece; Aluftekin, NilayThis paper concentrates on the behavioral aspects of distribution channels in an export channel design from the perspective of the exporter. Based on the argument that channel conflict and satisfaction are among the major determinants of channel efficiency and performance, the perceived degrees of channel conflict and satisfaction are examined as well as the three antecedents of channel conflict, namely the channel power, cultural distance and distribution system quality, as they are regarded among major factors affecting the channel conflict. In conducting the analysis, questionnaire survey was undertaken among 30 exporter companies that are members of Ankara Chamber of Commerce and Likert scaling technique is used. The findings from the ordinary least squares (OLS) regression analysis suggest that the Turkish exporter do not regard the level of exercised power in a marketing channel system and the cultural distance between the foreign channel member’ markets as important sources of conflict while the international distribution system quality seems to be perceived as a major source of channel conflict. The findings also suggest that there exists a close relationship between the perceived channel conflict and the channel members’ satisfaction.Article An Examination Of The Effects Of The February, 2001 Crisis (Turkey) On The Performances Of The Low-Q And High-Q Firms(2006) Karadağlı, Ece C.; Omay, TolgaThis paper examines the effects of the February 2001 Economic Crisis (Turkey) on the low-Q and high-Q firms. In the study, our sample is composed of the firms that are actively being traded on Istanbul Stock Exchange (ISE) during that time, and is divided into two sub-samples based on their Tobins' Q values. As firms with high Tobins' Q values are supposed to have lower debt levels we proposed them to be less affected by the crises: their debt repayment commitments are lower, although they are expected to be under the burden of higher interest rates. On the other hand, low-Q firms have incentives to overinvest due to the high levels of available free cash and they may be under the burden of some perquisites expenses. But because of the asset substitution affect, the investments undertaken by low-Q firms are expected to be safer projects while high-Q firms may have undertaken more risky projects. To test our hypothesis that the crisis would affect the low-and high-Q firms to differing extends, we construct the average mean excess returns of both sub-samples and use the Large Sample Test of Hypothesis About a Population Mean method. Our results mainly confirm our expectations: we found that the average mean excess negative returns of high-Q firms were higher than that of low-Q firms during the February 2001 Crisis, indicating that high-Q firms are more riskier in an economic crisis setting than low-Q firms, which in turn implies that the effects of the conflict between equityholders and debtholders dominate the affects of the conflict between managers and the shareholders.Other Can Us Wage Increases Be Regarded as A\rleading Indicator for Bond Rates(2020) Acar, Elif Oznur; Özşuca, Ekin Ayşe; 237965; 48566After the subprime meltdown, the Federal Reserve focused its attention on US non-\rfarm payroll data in order to pave the way for its fund rate hikes. As time went by,\rthe Federal Reserve deemed particularly one sub-component of this data, namely the\rincrements on average weekly wage growth as a proxy for in\ration and thus a plausible\rexplanation for raising the interest rates. In that aspect, we decide to elaborate on this\rissue further and examine whether this implemented strategy indeed had a re\rection in\rthe real market. For doing so, we intend to determine whether there is any causality\rrelation in either direction between US average weekly wage increases and 10-year\rTreasury Bond rates. We utilize the Toda-Yamamoto causality approach and come\rup with a statistically signicant result between wages and bond rates. For robustness,\rwe also consider the unemployment rate and consumption expenditures as independent\rvariables.
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