Omay, Tolga
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Doç. Dr.
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Çankaya Meslek Yüksekokulu
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Scholarly Output
36
Articles
60
Citation Count
662
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0
36 results
Scholarly Output Search Results
Now showing 1 - 10 of 36
Conference Object Citation - WoS: 19Citation - Scopus: 20The relationship between inflation, output growth, and their uncertainties: evidence from selected CEE countries(M E Sharpe inc, 2011) Hasanov, Mubariz; Omay, Tolga; Omay, Tolga; Çankaya Meslek YüksekokuluIn this paper, we examine causal relationships between inflation rate, output growth rate, inflation uncertainty, and output uncertainty for ten Central and Eastern European transition countries. For this purpose, we estimate a bivariate GARCH model that includes output growth and inflation rates for each country. Then we use conditional standard deviations of inflation and output to proxy nominal and real uncertainty, respectively, and perform Granger causality tests. Our results suggest that inflation rate induces uncertainty about both inflation rate and output growth rate, which is detrimental to real economic activity. At the same time, we find that output growth rate reduces macroeconomic uncertainty in some countries. In addition, we also examine and discuss causal relationships between the remaining variables.Article Türkiye için reaksiyon fonksiyonunun doğrusal olmayan modelle tahmin edilmesi(Çankaya Üniversitesi, 2010) Omay, Tolga; Hasanov, Mübariz; 19320; Çankaya Meslek YüksekokuluIn this paper we have estimated the monetary reaction function of the Central Bank of the Republic of Turkey. The originality of the paper is that we have used smooth transition functions (STR) that allow for proper modelling of nonlinearities and asymmetries in the relationship between variables under consideration. The estimated models suggest that the backward-looking instead of foreward-looking models best characterize the Central Bank’s reaction function, that is, the Central Bank reacted to past inflation rates rather than to future rates. This finding is in conformity with earlier research. We have found that the main purpose of expansionary policy of the Central Bank is to stabilize output whereas contractionary policies aimed only at reducing the inflation rate. The fact that the Central Bank has disregarded inflation in conducting expansionary policy and focused only on output stabilisation may explain why the Central Bank was not successful in fighting inflation. Besides, neither in expansionary policy regime nor in contractionary policy regime, real exchange rate is not targeted by the Central Bank. Moreover, budget deficit is targeted only in the contractionary policy regimeArticle Citation - WoS: 15Citation - Scopus: 16An Empirical Examination Of The Generalized Fisher Effect Using Cross-Sectional Correlation Robust Tests For Panel Cointegration(Elsevier Science Bv, 2015) Omay, Tolga; Omay, Tolga; Yuksel, Asli; Yüksel, Aslı; Yuksel, Aydin; 19320; Çankaya Meslek Yüksekokulu; İşletmeThis study examines the generalized Fisher hypothesis as applied to common stocks by using the recently proposed second generation panel cointegration tests. Unlike their predecessors, these new tests assume the existence of cross-section dependence in the data. For the sample analyzed, we report that these new tests, but not their predecessors, provide strong support for the existence of cointegration between stock and goods prices. Moreover, further analysis cannot reject the hypothesis that the cointegration relation is linear. Finally, our Fisher coefficient estimates are in the range between 0.68 and 1.27 and give support to the generalized Fisher hypothesis. (C) 2014 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.Article Citation - WoS: 31Citation - Scopus: 36The endogenous and non-linear relationship between terrorism and economic performance: Turkish evidence(Taylor & Francis Ltd, 2009) Araz-Takay, Bahar; Omay, Tolga; Arin, K. Peren; Omay, Tolga; 177438; Çankaya Meslek YüksekokuluThis paper investigates the macroeconomic effects of terror by using a novel data set from Turkey for the period of 1987:1 to 2004:4. This research contributes to the literature by controlling for the possible non-linear and endogenous relationship between political conflict and economic activity. Empirical evidence from both linear and non-linear models confirms that terrorism has a large significant negative impact on economic activity. Finally, the results from the non-linear model show that the impact of terrorism on the aggregate economy is more severe during expansionary periods, and that the impact of economic activity on terrorism is significant only in recessionary periods.Article Is there convergence in renewable energy deployment? Evidence from a new panel unit root test with smooth and sharp structural breaks(2023) Omay, Tolga; Omay, Tolga; 103299; Çankaya Meslek YüksekokuluThis study examines whether the contribution of renewable energy to the total primary energy supply converges in a panel of 24 OECD countries over the period 1960–2020. To this end, a new panel unit root test that allows for both sharp and smooth breaks is proposed to test for the stochastic convergence hypothesis. Although renewable energy convergence is not rejected when the newly proposed test is applied to the full panel of OECD countries, it found only moderate support within the members of the panel using a sequential panel selection methodology. In fact, in two high-income OECD countries, the contribution of renewable energy to the primary energy supply shows no sign of convergence: Poland and Iceland. Therefore, the renewable energy shares seem to be converging to a common steady state in only a group of OECD countries over the long run. This uneven pattern of convergence, in turn, suggests that the OECD countries are still far away from developing a common sustainable renewable energy target, calling for urgent international policy cooperation to encourage the divergent economies to seek out the menu of policies that ensure the worldwide success of renewable energy transformation.Article Citation - WoS: 12Citation - Scopus: 12The effects of inflation uncertainty on interest rates: a nonlinear approach(Routledge Journals, Taylor & Francis Ltd, 2010) Omay, Tolga; Omay, Tolga; Hasanov, Muebariz; Çankaya Meslek YüksekokuluIn this article, we investigate the effects of inflation variability on short-term interest rates within a nonlinear smooth transition regression framework. The test results suggest that only the conditional mean of the inflation is a nonlinear process whereas the conditional variance is time variant but linear. Using the square root of conditional variance as a proxy for inflation risk, we estimate Fisher equation augmented with inflation risk. Although the estimated Fisher equations suggest that inflation risk reduces short-term interest rates, we find that the effects of inflation risk on interest rates are regime-dependent. Particularly, we find that the negative effects of inflation variability on nominal rates are greater in low-inflationary regimes when compared to high-inflationary regimes. On the other hand, it is found that both inflation and inflation uncertainty raise the expected inflation effect.Article Citation - WoS: 51Citation - Scopus: 55Reexamining the PPP hypothesis: A nonlinear asymmetric heterogeneous panel unit root test(Elsevier, 2014) Emirmahmutoglu, Furkan; Omay, Tolga; Omay, Tolga; 43754; Çankaya Meslek YüksekokuluIn this study, we re-examine the PPP hypothesis in the light of the new developments in the unit root testing literature. The recent theoretical findings have pointed out that the real exchange rate series exhibit asymmetric nonlinear behavior. A unit root test applied to analyze the PPP hypothesis therefore, should also take into account this asymmetry inherent in the real exchange rate. Different unit root tests that consider the presence of these data features have been developed in the time series literature. However, a true attempt to test the PPP hypothesis should take a panel data approach. To this end, we propose a nonlinear heterogeneous panel unit root test where the alternative hypothesis allows for symmetric or asymmetric exponential smooth transition autoregressive nonlinearity and provide its finite sample properties. We apply our test to the real exchange rates of the 15 European Union countries against the US dollar. While the results of the linear and symmetric nonlinear heterogeneous panel unit root tests are against the PPP hypothesis, the asymmetric nonlinear heterogeneous panel test that we propose gives support for the PPP hypothesis as expected. Therefore, the conclusions drawn from the linear panel unit root tests or the nonlinear panel unit root tests that do not take asymmetry into account might be misleading. (C) 2014 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.Article The effects of terrorist activities on foreign direct investment: nonlinear Evidence(2013) Omay, Tolga; Takay Araz, Bahar; Ilalan, Deniz; 19320; Çankaya Meslek YüksekokuluIn this study, we examine the relationship between foreign direct investment and terrorist incidents that took place in Turkey for the period from 1991:12 to 2003:12. This research contributes to the literature by checking for a possible non-linear relationship between terrorism and foreign direct investment. The data used to measure the intensity of terrorism were collected from the newspapers of Turkey, and therefore are limited to the direct signals given to the market. Empirical evidence from both linear and non-linear models confirms that terrorism has a large significant negative impact on foreign direct investment. With respect to the nonlinear model, the impact of terrorism on the foreign direct investment is more severe during periods of high terrorism when the intensity of terrorism passes the threshold level 3.725.Article Citation - WoS: 64Citation - Scopus: 80Re-examining the threshold effects in the inflation-growth nexus with cross-sectionally dependent non-linear panel: Evidence from six industrialized economies(Elsevier Science Bv, 2010) Omay, Tolga; Omay, Tolga; Kan, Elif Oeznur; Çankaya Meslek YüksekokuluThis paper analyzes the empirical relationship between inflation and output growth using a novel panel data estimation technique, Panel Smooth Transition Regression (PSTR) model, which takes account of the non-linearities in the data. By using a panel data set for 6 industrialized countries that enable us to control for unobserved heterogeneity at both country and time levels, we find that there exists a statistically significant negative relationship between inflation and growth for the inflation rates above the critical threshold level of 2.52%, which is endogenously determined. Furthermore, we also control cross-section dependency by using the CD test modified to non-linear context and remedy cross-section dependency with Seemingly Unrelated Regression Equations through Generalized Least Squares (SURE-GLS) and newly proposed Common Correlated Effects (CCE) estimation techniques. We find that these methods change the critical threshold value slightly. The estimated threshold values from these estimation methods are 3.18% and 2.42%, respectively. (C) 2010 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.Article Citation - WoS: 148Citation - Scopus: 156Testing for unit root in nonlinear heterogeneous panels(Elsevier Science Sa, 2009) Uçar, Nuri; Ucar, Nuri; Omay, Tolga; Omay, Tolga; 189073; Bankacılık ve Finans; Çankaya Meslek YüksekokuluWe develop unit root tests for nonlinear heterogeneous panels where the alternative hypothesis is an exponential smooth transition (ESTAR) model, and provide their small sample properties. We apply our tests for investigating the income convergence hypothesis in the OECD sample. (C) 2009 Published by Elsevier B.V.
