A Dynamical and Sensitivity Analysis of the Caputo Fractional-Order Ebola Virus Model: Implications for Control Measures

Abstract

The recurrence of outbreaks in cases of Ebola virus among African countries remains one of the greatest issues of concern. Practices such as hunting or consumption of contam-inated bush meat, unsafe funeral practices, and environmental contamination have all been implicated as possible contributors. This paper investigates the transmission dynamics of the Ebola virus model in the setting of a Caputo fractional-order derivative that accounts for both direct and indirect transmissions of the virus. By employing the concept of fixed theorems, we derived the existence and uniqueness results of the model. Moreover, we analyzed the forward normalized sensitivity indices to identify the critical parameters for controlling the infection and found that reducing the contact rate between infected individuals and susceptible vectors is vital to limiting the virus’s spread. Comparing the proposed fractional-order model with those of the previously developed integer-order model numerically, we found that the proposed model provides more reliable information on the model’s dynamics. Thus, we conclude that the Caputo fractional-order operator is a precise tool for describing the proposed model behavior and can help understand the complexities of Ebola virus disease outbreaks. © 2023, Thammasat University. All rights reserved.