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The Stock and CDS Market Consequences of Political Uncertainty: The Arab Spring

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Date

2022

Authors

Tanyeri, Başak
Savaser, Tanseli
Usul, Naime

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Abstract

We investigate how political unrest affects asset prices in the context of the Arab Spring. Abnormal returns in the major stock-market indices of Arab Spring countries average −1.1% on key days of Arab Spring and abnormal changes in credit default spreads average 1.4%. There is significant reaction to region wide as well as local protests indicating a spillover with protests in neighboring countries affecting investors’ perception of local political instability and the pricing of assets. Once protests start locally, investors start paying more attention to what is happening at home than in the region. The significant stock market reaction to region-wide protests in Arab Spring countries indicates a spill-over where investors price an increase in the probability of political turmoil in one country when there are protests in neighboring countries. The decline in stock market indices coupled with the increase in credit default spreads indicates that investors anticipate and ex-ante price how current political uncertainty will affect firm value.

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Arab Spring, G23, G34, Middle East and North Africa, Political Uncertainty, Regional Spillovers

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Citation

Tanyeri, Başak; Savaser, Tanseli; Usul, Naime (2022). "The Stock and CDS Market Consequences of Political Uncertainty: The Arab Spring", Emerging Markets Finance and Trade, Vol. 58, No. 7, pp. 1821-1837.

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Emerging Markets Finance and Trade

Volume

58

Issue

7

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1821

End Page

1837