Bankacılık ve Sigortacılık Bölümü

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Citation - WoS: 12
Citation - Scopus: 12
The Effects of Inflation Uncertainty on Interest Rates: a Nonlinear Approach
(Routledge Journals, Taylor & Francis Ltd, 2010) Hasanov, Muebariz; Omay, Tolga; 08.02. Çankaya Meslek Yüksekokulu; 08. Meslek Yüksekokulları; 01. Çankaya Üniversitesi
In this article, we investigate the effects of inflation variability on short-term interest rates within a nonlinear smooth transition regression framework. The test results suggest that only the conditional mean of the inflation is a nonlinear process whereas the conditional variance is time variant but linear. Using the square root of conditional variance as a proxy for inflation risk, we estimate Fisher equation augmented with inflation risk. Although the estimated Fisher equations suggest that inflation risk reduces short-term interest rates, we find that the effects of inflation risk on interest rates are regime-dependent. Particularly, we find that the negative effects of inflation variability on nominal rates are greater in low-inflationary regimes when compared to high-inflationary regimes. On the other hand, it is found that both inflation and inflation uncertainty raise the expected inflation effect.
Citation - WoS: 31
Citation - Scopus: 36
The Endogenous and Non-Linear Relationship Between Terrorism and Economic Performance: Turkish Evidence
(Taylor & Francis Ltd, 2009) Arin, K. Peren; Omay, Tolga; Araz-Takay, Bahar; 177438; 08.02. Çankaya Meslek Yüksekokulu; 08. Meslek Yüksekokulları; 01. Çankaya Üniversitesi
This paper investigates the macroeconomic effects of terror by using a novel data set from Turkey for the period of 1987:1 to 2004:4. This research contributes to the literature by controlling for the possible non-linear and endogenous relationship between political conflict and economic activity. Empirical evidence from both linear and non-linear models confirms that terrorism has a large significant negative impact on economic activity. Finally, the results from the non-linear model show that the impact of terrorism on the aggregate economy is more severe during expansionary periods, and that the impact of economic activity on terrorism is significant only in recessionary periods.
Citation - WoS: 20
Citation - Scopus: 23
Nonlinearities in Emerging Stock Markets: Evidence From Europe's Two Largest Emerging Markets
(Routledge Journals, Taylor & Francis Ltd, 2008) Omay, Tolga; Hasanov, Muebariz; 08.02. Çankaya Meslek Yüksekokulu; 08. Meslek Yüksekokulları; 01. Çankaya Üniversitesi
Recent developments in time series analysis allow proper modelling of nonlinearities in economic and financial variables. A growing body of research was dedicated to investigation of potential nonlinearities in conditional mean of many economic and financial variables, mainly concentrating in developed economies. However, nonlinearities in financial variables in developing economies have not been fully examined yet. In this article we investigate potential nonlinearity and cyclical behaviour of stock returns in Europe's two largest emerging stock markets, mainly in the Greek and Turkish stock markets. Specifically, we use STAR family models, which allow to model nonlinearities in the conditional mean, for modelling monthly returns on stock exchange indices of the Athens Stock Exchange and Istanbul Stock Exchange. Although we find no nonlinearity in conditional variance, we do find strong evidence in favour of nonlinear adjustment of stock returns. It is found that allowing for nonlinearity in conditional mean results in a superior model and provides good out-of-sample forecasts, which contradicts to efficient market hypothesis.
Citation - WoS: 150
Citation - Scopus: 160
Testing for Unit Root in Nonlinear Heterogeneous Panels
(Elsevier Science Sa, 2009) Ucar, Nuri; Omay, Tolga; 189073; 08.02. Çankaya Meslek Yüksekokulu; 08. Meslek Yüksekokulları; 01. Çankaya Üniversitesi; 03.01. Bankacılık ve Finans; 03. İktisadi ve İdari Birimler Fakültesi
We develop unit root tests for nonlinear heterogeneous panels where the alternative hypothesis is an exponential smooth transition (ESTAR) model, and provide their small sample properties. We apply our tests for investigating the income convergence hypothesis in the OECD sample. (C) 2009 Published by Elsevier B.V.

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