İktisadi ve İdari Bilimler Fakültesi

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Citation - WoS: 2
Citation - Scopus: 2
An Alternative Mean Reversion Test for Interest Rates
(Central Bank Republic Turkey, 2018) Ozel, Ozgur; Ilalan, Deniz; 01. Çankaya Üniversitesi; 03.01. Bankacılık ve Finans; 03. İktisadi ve İdari Birimler Fakültesi
A number of empirical studies assert that interest rates are governed by unit root processes rejecting any form of reversion to a long term mean by resorting to certain tests, among which the Augmented Dickey Fuller (ADF) is the most widely used one. In this study, we propose an alternative testing methodology that can be applied along with ADF test, in the sense that there are times where it can capture stationarity when the other fails to do so. Moreover, our test has more power than ADF test. As an application to real-data, we consider 10-year US and Turkish T-bond rates. (C) 2017 Central Bank of The Republic of Turkey. Production and hosting by Elsevier B.V.
Citation - WoS: 4
Citation - Scopus: 4
Analysis of Distinct Asymmetries in Financialintegration-Growthnexus for Industrial, Emerging and Developing Countries
(Wiley, 2022) Ocal, Nadir; Yolcu Karadam, Duygu; 01. Çankaya Üniversitesi; 03.03. İktisat; 03. İktisadi ve İdari Birimler Fakültesi
This paper examines the threshold conditions in financial integration and growth relationship for a large set of threshold variables and different income group of countries employing Panel Smooth Transition Regression Models. Except developing countries, our findings strongly indicate nonlinear dynamics and imply that the impact of financial integration on growth is asymmetric depending on a number of indicators such as countries' degree of institutional quality, financial sector development, trade openness, budget deficit, inflation volatility and the level of financial integration. Our results show that these threshold effects substantially differ for emerging and industrial countries. As far as whole set of countries is concerned, our findings imply that countries having developed financial systems, qualified institutions and stable macroeconomic environment benefit from financial integration. Moreover, threshold effects are stronger and different for emerging countries compared to the industrial countries. Unlike emerging economies, higher levels of financial integration and trade openness decrease benefits from financial openness for the industrial countries. Besides, high fiscal deficit has more pronounced negative effect on the growth of the industrialized countries compared to emerging economies and other indicators.
Citation - WoS: 21
Citation - Scopus: 21
Business Groups and Internal Capital Markets
(Routledge Journals, Taylor & Francis Ltd, 2007) Gonenc, Halit; Kan, Ozgur B.; Karadagli, Ece C.; 03.01. Bankacılık ve Finans; 03. İktisadi ve İdari Birimler Fakültesi; 01. Çankaya Üniversitesi
We compare the performance of firms affiliated with diversified business groups with the performance of unaffiliated firms in Turkey, all emerging market. We address the question of whether group-affiliated firms create internal capital markets or control large cash flows. Our findings indicate that group affiliation improves a firm accounting performance, but not stock market performance. Deviation of cash-flow rights front voting rights has a negative but insignificant effect on accounting performance, but a significant effect on market performance. We also find that a firm's accounting, but not stock market, performance increases with the level of group diversification. Our results show that internal capital markets play an important role for the existence of business groups in all emerging market context.
Citation - WoS: 1
Citation - Scopus: 1
Cointegration, Causality and the Transmission of Shocks Across Wheat Market in Pakistan
(Springer, 2009) Klasra, Mushtaq Ahmad; 03.06. Uluslararası Ticaret ve Finansman; 03. İktisadi ve İdari Birimler Fakültesi; 01. Çankaya Üniversitesi
This paper uses quarterly price data and examines the transmission of shocks across different spatially separated locations besides identifying causality among these locations. Johansen and Juselius's (Econ. Stat., 52, 160-210, 1990) multivariate cointegration procedure identified two cointegrating vectors among these locations. Following Toda and Yamamoto (J. Econom., 66, 225-250, 1995), causality tests showed only one bi-directional causality and it was between Peshawar and Hyderabad locations. Faisalabad and Sargodha appeared independent (i.e. exogenous) market locations in price discovery process. Peshawar market showed maximum (i.e. 5) number of significant links. The generalized impulse response functions, though, suggested similar (cyclical) pattern of responses across the markets, but their time profile, which provides insight into the system's speed of convergence to long run equilibrium path, varied with different level of extent and persistency. Responses to shock originating in consumption markets (i.e. Karachi, Peshawar and Lahore) remained short lived; whereas the shocks stemming from surplus wheat producing locations (i.e Multan, Sargodha and Faisalabad) produced long and more persistent responses.
Citation - WoS: 3
Citation - Scopus: 5
A Comparative Civilizational Reading for the Middle East and Turkey's New Role in It
(Routledge Journals, Taylor & Francis Ltd, 2016) Atac, C. Akca; 17826; 03.05. Siyaset Bilimi ve Uluslararası İlişkiler; 03. İktisadi ve İdari Birimler Fakültesi; 01. Çankaya Üniversitesi
The 1990s witnessed a bloom of studies on the standard of civilization', which all aimed to explore the future of the rift between the East and the West. The Arab Spring and its implications for the primordial competition between the East and the West has once again required the revisiting of certain, rather more contemporary, theoretical aspects of the grand debate on civilization. This paper aims to introduce current arguments pertaining to the grand debate on civilization into the context of the Arab Spring. In doing so, it seeks to offer a comparative perspective of the quest for understanding the current situation in the Middle East with particular reference to the civilization discourse which is currently on the rise in Turkish politics. Turkey is among the actors in the Middle East seeking to assume leadership in order to establish peace in the region.
Citation - Scopus: 10
Competitiveness of Major Exporting Countries and Turkey in the World Fishery Market: a Constant Market Share Analysis
(2005) Fidan, H.; Klasra, M.A.; 01. Çankaya Üniversitesi; 03.06. Uluslararası Ticaret ve Finansman; 03. İktisadi ve İdari Birimler Fakültesi
The purpose of this study is to examine whether and to what extent the shares of selected countries' fishery exports in the world markets reflect their international competitiveness. The Constant Market Share (CMS) model, which decomposes export growth into some broad components (i.e., structural effects, market effects, commodity effects and competitive effects), is applied to examine this issue. The results of decomposition analysis revealed that structural factors have been more significant in explaining the growth of exports. The growth effects, though, appeared positive for each country, the exports of open economies like Canada, the United States, Iceland and Turkey benefited more from the growth of world exports. The analysis of commodity composition and market effects suggests that countries like Canada, the United States, Iceland and Turkey were pursuing the product differentiation policy and were penetrating in those markets, which have been growing relatively faster. These countries remained committed throughout the sample period (i.e., 1980-2000) to export their diversified products in fast-growing markets. The analysis of competitiveness effects, which are derived as a residual, show that Norway, Spain, the United States, Indonesia, Thailand, sChile and China were strong fishery exporters and increased their competitiveness during the sample period. Copyright © 2005 IAAEM.
Citation - WoS: 18
Citation - Scopus: 23
Computing Non-Stationary (S, S) Policies Using Mixed Integer Linear Programming
(Elsevier Science Bv, 2018) Xiang, Mengyuan; Rossi, Roberto; Martin-Barragan, Belen; Tarim, S. Armagan; 6641; 03.04. İşletme; 03. İktisadi ve İdari Birimler Fakültesi; 01. Çankaya Üniversitesi
This paper addresses the single-item single-stocking location non-stationary stochastic lot sizing problem under the (s, S) control policy. We first present a mixed integer non-linear programming (MINLP) formulation for determining near-optimal (s, S) policy parameters. To tackle larger instances, we then combine the previously introduced MINLP model and a binary search approach. These models can be reformulated as mixed integer linear programming (MILP) models which can be easily implemented and solved by using off-the-shelf optimization software. Computational experiments demonstrate that optimality gaps of these models are less than 0.3% of the optimal policy cost and computational times are reasonable. (C) 2018 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.
Citation - WoS: 7
Citation - Scopus: 10
Confidence-Based Reasoning in Stochastic Constraint Programming
(Elsevier, 2015) Rossi, Roberto; Hnich, Brahim; Tarim, S. Armagan; Prestvvich, Steven; 6641; 03.04. İşletme; 03. İktisadi ve İdari Birimler Fakültesi; 01. Çankaya Üniversitesi
In this work we introduce a novel approach, based on sampling, for finding assignments that are likely to be solutions to stochastic constraint satisfaction problems and constraint optimisation problems. Our approach reduces the size of the original problem being analysed; by solving this reduced problem, with a given confidence probability, we obtain assignments that satisfy the chance constraints in the original model within prescribed error tolerance thresholds. To achieve this, we blend concepts from stochastic constraint programming and statistics. We discuss both exact and approximate variants of our method. The framework we introduce can be immediately employed in concert with existing approaches for solving stochastic constraint programs. A thorough computational study on a number of stochastic combinatorial optimisation problems demonstrates the effectiveness of our approach. (C) 2015 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.
Citation - WoS: 13
Citation - Scopus: 12
Deep Learning Method for Compressive Strength Prediction for Lightweight Concrete
(Techno-press, 2023) Nanehkaran, Yaser A.; Azarafza, Mohammad; Pusatli, Tolga; Bonab, Masoud Hajialilue; Irani, Arash Esmatkhah; Kouhdarag, Mehdi; Derakhshani, Reza; 51704; 03.07. Yönetim Bilişim Sistemleri; 03. İktisadi ve İdari Birimler Fakültesi; 01. Çankaya Üniversitesi
Concrete is the most widely used building material, with various types including high-and ultra-high-strength, reinforced, normal, and lightweight concretes. However, accurately predicting concrete properties is challenging due to the geotechnical design code's requirement for specific characteristics. To overcome this issue, researchers have turned to new technologies like machine learning to develop proper methodologies for concrete specification. In this study, we propose a highly accurate deep learning-based predictive model to investigate the compressive strength (UCS) of lightweight concrete with natural aggregates (pumice). Our model was implemented on a database containing 249 experimental records and revealed that water, cement, water-cement ratio, fine-coarse aggregate, aggregate substitution rate, fine aggregate replacement, and superplasticizer are the most influential covariates on UCS. To validate our model, we trained and tested it on random subsets of the database, and its performance was evaluated using a confusion matrix and receiver operating characteristic (ROC) overall accuracy. The proposed model was compared with widely known machine learning methods such as MLP, SVM, and DT classifiers to assess its capability. In addition, the model was tested on 25 laboratory UCS tests to evaluate its predictability. Our findings showed that the proposed model achieved the highest accuracy (accuracy=0.97, precision=0.97) and the lowest error rate with a high learning rate (R2=0.914), as confirmed by ROC (AUC=0.971), which is higher than other classifiers. Therefore, the proposed method demonstrates a high level of performance and capability for UCS predictions.
Citation - WoS: 96
Citation - Scopus: 118
The Degree of Financial Liberalization and Aggregated Stock-Return Volatility in Emerging Markets
(Elsevier Science Bv, 2010) Akdeniz, Levent; Altay-Salih, Aslihan; Umutlu, Mehmet; 38254; 178057; 03.04. İşletme; 03. İktisadi ve İdari Birimler Fakültesi; 01. Çankaya Üniversitesi
In this study, we address whether the degree of financial liberalization affects the aggregated total volatility of stock returns by considering the time-varying nature of financial liberalization. We also explore channels through which the degree of financial liberalization impacts aggregated total volatility. We document a negative relation to the degree of financial liberalization after controlling for size, liquidity, country. and crisis effects, especially for small and medium-sized markets. Moreover, the degree of financial liberalization transmits its negative impact on aggregated total volatility through aggregated idiosyncratic and local volatilities. Overall, our results provide evidence in favor of the view that the broadening of the investor base due to the increasing degree of financial liberalization causes a reduction in the total volatility of stock returns. (C) 2009 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.
Citation - WoS: 69
Citation - Scopus: 84
Detecting Stock-Price Manipulation in an Emerging Market: the Case of Turkey
(Pergamon-elsevier Science Ltd, 2009) Ogut, Hulisi; Doganay, M. Mete; Aktas, Ramazan; 112010; 1109; 03.04. İşletme; 03. İktisadi ve İdari Birimler Fakültesi; 01. Çankaya Üniversitesi
This paper aims to develop methods that are capable of detecting manipulation in the Istanbul Stock Exchange. We take the difference between manipulated stock's and index's average daily return, average daily change in trading volume and average daily volatility and used these statistics as explanatory variables. The data in post-manipulation and pre-manipulation periods are used as non-manipulated instances while the data in the manipulation period are used as manipulated instances. Test performance of classification accuracy, sensitivity and specificity statistics for Artificial Neural Networks (ANN) and Support Vector Machine (SVM) are compared with the results of discriminant analysis and logistics regression (logit). We found that the data mining techniques (ANN and SVM) are better suited to detect stock-price manipulation than multivariate statistical techniques (discriminant analysis, logistics regression) as the performances of the data mining techniques in terms of total classification accuracy and sensitivity statistics are better than those of multivariate techniques. We also found that unit change in difference between average daily return of manipulated stock and the index has the largest effect while unit change in difference between average daily change in trading volume of manipulated stock and index has the least effect on multivariate classifiers' decision functions. (C) 2009 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.
Citation - WoS: 36
Citation - Scopus: 44
Dynamic Linkages Between Renewable Energy, Carbon Emissions and Economic Growth Through Nonlinear Ardl Approach: Evidence From Iran
(Public Library Science, 2021) Karimi, M. S.; Ahmad, S.; Karamelikli, H.; Dinc, D. T.; Khan, Y. A.; Sabzehei, M. T.; Abbas, S. Z.; 52039; 01. Çankaya Üniversitesi
This study examines the relationship between economic growth, renewable energy consumption, and carbon emissions in Iran between 1975-2017, and the bounds testing approach to cointegration and the asymmetric method was used in this study. The results reveal that in the long run increase in renewable energy consumption and CO2 emissions causes an increase in real GDP per capita. Meanwhile, the decrease in renewable energy has the same effect, but GDP per capita reacts more strongly to the rise in renewable energy than the decline. Besides, in the long run, a reduction of CO2 emissions has an insignificant impact on GDP per capita. Furthermore, the results from asymmetric tests suggest that reducing CO2 emissions and renewable energy consumption do not have an essential role in decreasing growth in the short run. In contrast, an increase in renewable energy consumption and CO2 emissions do contribute to boosting the growth. These results may be attributable to the less renewable energy in the energy portfolio of Iran. Additionally, the coefficients on capital and labor are statistically significant, and we discuss the economic implications of the results and propose specific policy recommendations.
Dynamics of Wheat Prices in the Wake of Market Reforms: the Case of Pakistan
(Springer, 2006) Kiral, T; Klasra, MA; 01. Çankaya Üniversitesi; 03.06. Uluslararası Ticaret ve Finansman; 03. İktisadi ve İdari Birimler Fakültesi
Using Autoregressive Conditional Heteroskedastic (ARCH) method, this paper examines the effects of market reforms on the distribution of real mean prices and their variability before and after reforms. It is found that market-oriented reforms benefited producers and consumers alike. Empirical evidences, generally, support theoretical assertion that mean prices decline in most urban areas and increase in those markets that are located in surplus producing areas. The results also showed that market reforms lead to more price volatility.
Citation - WoS: 2
Citation - Scopus: 3
Economic Sentiment and Foreign Portfolio Flows: Evidence From Türkiye
(Central Bank Republic Turkey, 2024) Ozkan, Ibrahim; Erden, Lutfi; Gunes, Didem; 169580; 03.07. Yönetim Bilişim Sistemleri; 03. İktisadi ve İdari Birimler Fakültesi; 01. Çankaya Üniversitesi
The notable surge in capital flows in recent years has emerged as a key factor shaping the dynamics of international financial markets and influencing economic performance of emerging economies. Even though macroeconomic fundamentals of an economy can explain some of the patterns in international capital flows, behavioral factors also seem to be essential for positioning capital flows across countries. In this study, we aim to examine whether overall economic sentiment towards Turkish economy plays a significant role on net portfolio flows to Turkiye. To this end, we first construct a novel text-based sentiment index called "Turkish Economic Sentiment Index (TESI)", to capture the behavioral tendencies of international investors and media towards Turkiye. Our subsequent step integrates TESI into autoregressive distributed lag models (ARDL) alongside major pull-push determinants to assess whether market sentiment holds discernible influence on capital influx into Turkey. The results reveal that the TESI and VIX stand out as pivotal determinants influencing international portfolio flows. The TESI has a positive impact on portfolio flow dynamics, whereas the degree of global risk aversion inversely affects these flows. These findings align with the contention that a favorable sentiment can boost portfolio inflows to emerging markets. Conversely, heightened volatility expectations in global markets can prompt outflows from these economies.
Citation - WoS: 5
Citation - Scopus: 6
Elliott Wave Principle and the Corresponding Fractional Brownian Motion in Stock Markets: Evidence From Nikkei 225 Index
(Pergamon-elsevier Science Ltd, 2016) Ilalan, Deniz; 01. Çankaya Üniversitesi; 03.01. Bankacılık ve Finans; 03. İktisadi ve İdari Birimler Fakültesi
This paper examines one of the vital technical analysis indicators known as the Elliott wave principle. Since these waves have a fractal nature with patterns that are not exact, we first determine the dimension of them. Our second aim is to find a linkage between Elliott wave principle and fractional Brownian motion via comparing their Hausdorff dimensions. Thirdly, we consider the Nikkei 225 index during Japan asset price bubble, which is a perfect example of an Elliott wave. (C) 2016 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.
Citation - Scopus: 2
Empire of Languages: Eu's Multilingualism Policy and the Turkish Language
(Routledge Journals, Taylor & Francis Ltd, 2012) Atac, C. Akca; 17826; 03.05. Siyaset Bilimi ve Uluslararası İlişkiler; 03. İktisadi ve İdari Birimler Fakültesi; 01. Çankaya Üniversitesi
Despite its crucial role in sustaining better integration, multilingualism is not discussed as widely as the other topics of multiculturalism within the context of the European Union (EU) enlargement. The accession process requires Turkey to take notice of the opportunities and shortcomings as well as the challenges of European multilingualism and to communicate the relevance of the Turkish language to the completeness of European multiculturalism. The present article aims to assess the EU language policy in light of the future imperative of incorporating Turkish into Europe's linguistic family by referring to the EU's laws, norms, and values as well as NGOs' reports and opinion papers.
Citation - WoS: 21
Citation - Scopus: 25
An Empirical Analysis of Household Education Expenditures in Turkey
(Pergamon-elsevier Science Ltd, 2016) Cilasun, Seyit Mumin; Acar, Elif Oznur; Gunalp, Burak; 01. Çankaya Üniversitesi; 03.06. Uluslararası Ticaret ve Finansman; 03. İktisadi ve İdari Birimler Fakültesi; 03.07. Yönetim Bilişim Sistemleri
Using Turkish Household Budget Surveys from 2003, 2007 and 2012, this paper investigates the determinants of household education expenditures within an Engel curve framework. In particular, we estimate Tobit regressions of real educational expenditures by income groups using a number of household characteristics (i.e. rural residence, employment status, age, educational attainment of the household head, household size, share of female students and primary school students in the household, and total number of students in the household) to examine if and to what extent the determinants of educational expenditures differ by income groups; income elasticities of educational spending evolves over time; and children from middle-class and poor families can benefit enough from educational opportunities. The estimated expenditure elasticities have lower values for the top- and the bottom income quartiles while they have larger values for the middle-income quartiles. The results also show that for all income groups the expenditure elasticity of education increases over time, indicating that Turkish households allocates greater share of their budgets to education expenditures. (C) 2016 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.
Citation - WoS: 16
Citation - Scopus: 17
An Empirical Examination of the Generalized Fisher Effect Using Cross-Sectional Correlation Robust Tests for Panel Cointegration
(Elsevier Science Bv, 2015) Yuksel, Aydin; Omay, Tolga; Yuksel, Asli; 19320; 08.02. Çankaya Meslek Yüksekokulu; 08. Meslek Yüksekokulları; 01. Çankaya Üniversitesi; 03.04. İşletme; 03. İktisadi ve İdari Birimler Fakültesi
This study examines the generalized Fisher hypothesis as applied to common stocks by using the recently proposed second generation panel cointegration tests. Unlike their predecessors, these new tests assume the existence of cross-section dependence in the data. For the sample analyzed, we report that these new tests, but not their predecessors, provide strong support for the existence of cointegration between stock and goods prices. Moreover, further analysis cannot reject the hypothesis that the cointegration relation is linear. Finally, our Fisher coefficient estimates are in the range between 0.68 and 1.27 and give support to the generalized Fisher hypothesis. (C) 2014 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.
Citation - WoS: 4
Citation - Scopus: 4
Estimation in Multivariate Nonnormal Distributions With Stochastic Variance Function
(Elsevier Science Bv, 2014) Islam, M. Qamarul; 01. Çankaya Üniversitesi
In this paper the problem of estimation of location and scatter of multivariate nonnormal distributions is considered. Estimators are derived under a maximum likelihood setup by expressing the non-linear likelihood equations in the linear form. The resulting estimators are analytical expressions in terms of sample values and, hence, are easily computable and can also be manipulated analytically. These estimators are found to be remarkably more efficient and robust as compared to the least square estimators. They also provide more powerful tests in testing various relevant statistical hypotheses. (C) 2013 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.
Citation - WoS: 4
Citation - Scopus: 10
The Exchange Rate and the Trade Balances of Turkish Agriculture, Manufacturing and Mining
(Springer, 2008) Yazici, Mehmet; 144084; 03.03. İktisat; 03. İktisadi ve İdari Birimler Fakültesi; 01. Çankaya Üniversitesi
This paper investigates and compares the response to the exchange rate changes of trade balances of three Turkish sectors; agriculture, manufacturing and mining. The impact on trade balance of exchange rate changes is examined using the trade balance model employed in Bahmani-Oskooee [1985, Review of Economics and Statistics 67: 500]. Analysis is conducted based on the quarterly data from 1986: I to 1998: III. It is observed that in response to domestic currency depreciation trade balance of each of all three sectors first improves, then deteriorates and then improves again. Despite exhibiting similar pattern of reaction to the exchange rate change in the short run, long-run or overall response of trade balance differs across the sectors; while trade balances of both manufacturing and mining improve in the long run, agricultural trade balance worsens as a result of domestic-currency depreciation.

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