Bankacılık ve Finans Bölümü Yayın Koleksiyonu
Permanent URI for this collectionhttps://hdl.handle.net/20.500.12416/400
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Article Determination of the Best Simple Moving Average By Stochastic Processes(2017) İlalan, DenizIn this study, we consider one of the most popular technical indicators and try to determine the best fitting simple moving average to a given data. Here we utilize from a general mean reverting stochastic process where the mean is time dependent. We propose an identification algorithm which mainly concentrates on the normality of the residual terms after the data is demeaned from simple moving average and also provide evidence that our algorithm works quite well for determination of the “best” simple moving average.Article Modeling Correlation Structure for Collateralized Debt Obligations(2015) İlalan, DenizPricing complex financial derivatives such as collateralized debt obligations (CDO) is considered as the main reason triggering the 2008 financial crisis. The correlation structure related to the credit risks involved in a portfolio for pricing issues have been tried to overcome via a Gaussian copula framework first introduced by David Li (2000). This approach regards the correlation among the credit risks as normally distributed (tied with a Gaussian copula framework), enabling us to derive analytical solutions. However, despite its simplicity, this approach is far from reality, which caused mispricing of the tranches of CDOs. This phenomenon is called the correlation smile. This paper takes the correlation smile issue by considering a Levy copula framework. When this is introduced to pricing equations, one can see that the correlation smile is “corrected”. Thus, a more accurate model of pricing the above-mentioned tranches is introduced.Article Can Stock Price Manipulation be Prevented by Granting More Freedom to Manipulators(2015) İlalan, DenizAllen and Gale (1992) construct a model to show that stock price manipulation is possible. The time structure of their model allows manipulators to pretend as “informed” traders, so that the local investors cannot distinguish what type of entrant they are facing. When the type of the entrant becomes known to the local investors it is already too late to make any use of that information. This paper shows an institution can be designed in a very natural fashion which induces different behaviors on the part of manipulators and “informed” traders at the beginning of the process. The institution designed roughly consists of entitling the entrants to resell stocks at a later date as well if they wish to do so. As this reasoning is also accessible to manipulators, the designed institution deters them from entering the market. Regarding the informed traders, their expected gain from entering the stock market may or may not be positive contingent on the basic parameters of the model. There are cases, however, when there is an improvement in the expected total gain of the local investors.Article The Impact of Fed Policy Announcements on Emerging Stock Markets: Evidence from Borsa Istanbul(2017) Akdoğan, Ece C.; İlalan, DenizThis paper aims to understand the impact of US nonfarm payroll announcements on emerging stock markets through concentrating on the Turkish Stock Exchange: BIST 100. We not only investigate the impact of each of the three components of the nonfarm payroll data for the whole period under consideration, but also look for possible differences among four sub-periods. A comparative analysis leads us to conclude that it is not the nonfarm payroll which significantly affect BIST 100, but the fact that it is regarded as an important indicator to foresee Fed’s policy actions that can alter the capital flows.