Is the J-Curve Effect Observable in Turkish Agricultural Sector

Abstract

This paper investigates whether or not the J-curve hypothesis holds in Turkish agricultural sector. The analysis is conducted using the model the most commonly employed in j-curve literature. Based on the data covering the period from 1986: I to 1998: III, our results indicate that, following devaluation, agricultural trade balance initially improves, then worsens, and then improves again. This pattern shows that J-curve effect does not exist in Turkish agricultural sector. Another important finding is that devaluation worsens the trade balance of the sector in the long run, a result contradicting with the earlier findings for the Turkish economy as a whole.