İktisat Bölümü Yayın Koleksiyonu

Permanent URI for this collectionhttps://hdl.handle.net/20.500.12416/402

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Citation Count: Çorakçı, A.; Omay, T.; Hasanov, M. (2022). "Hysteresis and stochastic convergence in Eurozone unemployment rates: evidence from panel unit roots with smooth breaks and asymmetric dynamics", Oeconomia Copernicana, Vol.13, No.1, pp.11-15.
Hysteresis and stochastic convergence in Eurozone unemployment rates: evidence from panel unit roots with smooth breaks and asymmetric dynamics
(2022) Çorakçı, Ayşegül; Omay, Tolga; Hasanov, Mubariz; 103299
Research background: Studying the dynamic characteristics of unemployment rate is crucial for both economic theory and macroeconomic policies. Despite numerous research, the empirical evidence about stochastic behaviour of the unemployment rate remains disputable. It has been widely agreed that most economic variables, including unemployment rates, are characterized by both structural breaks and nonlinearities. However, a little work is done to examine both features simultaneously. Purpose of the article: In this paper, we analyse the stationarity properties of unemployment rates of Euro area member countries. Also, we aim to test stochastic convergence of unemployment rates among member countries. Our empirical procedures explicitly allow for simultaneous gradual breaks and nonlinearities in the series. Methods: This paper develops a new unit root test procedure for panel data, allowing for both gradual structural breaks and asymmetric adjustment towards equilibrium. We carry out Monte Carlo simulations to examine small sample performance of the proposed test procedure and compare it to the existing test procedures. We apply the newly proposed test to examine the stochastic properties of the unemployment rates of Euro-member countries as well as relative unemployment rates vis-à-vis the Eurozone unemployment rate. Findings & value added: We find that the newly developed test procedure outperforms existing tests in highly nonlinear settings. Also, these tests reject the null hypothesis of unit root in more cases when compared to the existing tests. We find stationarity in the series only after allowing for structural breaks in the data generating process. Allowing for nonlinear and asymmetric adjustment in addition to gradual breaks provides evidence of stationarity in more cases. Furthermore, our results suggest that relative unemployment rate series are stationary, providing evidence in favour of stochastic convergence in unemployment rates. Overall, our results imply a limited room for coordinated economic policy to fight unemployment in the Eurozone.
Citation Count: Çorakçı, Ayşegül. (2016). "Is there a Purchasing Power Parity (PPP) Puzzle? New Evidence from a Nonlinear Asymmetric Panel Unit Root Test", Ekonomik Yaklaşım, Vol.27, No.99, pp.237-266.
Is there a Purchasing Power Parity (PPP) Puzzle? New Evidence from a Nonlinear Asymmetric Panel Unit Root Test
(2016) Çorakçı, Ayşegül; 103299
This study re-examines the validity of the purchasing power parity (PPP) hypothesis for 24 OECD countries. The econometric methodology implemented not only allows for asymmetric nonlinear mean reversion within a panel context, but also corrects for the cross-sectional dependence bias frequently encountered in panel data. This feature is important because a test that ignores the presence of asymmetry and cross-sectional dependence when they are in fact present in the data would lead to misleading results. We obtain relatively stronger evidence in favor of the PPP hypothesis when compared to the other alternative panel unit root tests. However, on the whole, this support is still weak even after allowing for asymmetric nonlinear mean reversion in the real exchange rate series. Therefore, to reconcile the data with the theory further methods should be developed.
Citation Count: Çorakçı, A.; Omay,T. (2023). "Is there convergence in renewable energy deployment? Evidence from a new panel unit root test with smooth and sharp structural breaks", Renewable Energy, Vol.205, pp. 648-662.
Is there convergence in renewable energy deployment? Evidence from a new panel unit root test with smooth and sharp structural breaks
(2023) Çorakçı, Ayşegül; Omay, Tolga; 103299
This study examines whether the contribution of renewable energy to the total primary energy supply converges in a panel of 24 OECD countries over the period 1960–2020. To this end, a new panel unit root test that allows for both sharp and smooth breaks is proposed to test for the stochastic convergence hypothesis. Although renewable energy convergence is not rejected when the newly proposed test is applied to the full panel of OECD countries, it found only moderate support within the members of the panel using a sequential panel selection methodology. In fact, in two high-income OECD countries, the contribution of renewable energy to the primary energy supply shows no sign of convergence: Poland and Iceland. Therefore, the renewable energy shares seem to be converging to a common steady state in only a group of OECD countries over the long run. This uneven pattern of convergence, in turn, suggests that the OECD countries are still far away from developing a common sustainable renewable energy target, calling for urgent international policy cooperation to encourage the divergent economies to seek out the menu of policies that ensure the worldwide success of renewable energy transformation.
Citation Count: Adnan, Wifag...et al (2022). "On the heterogeneous effects of tax policy on labor market outcomes", Southern Economic Journal, Vol. 88, No. 3, pp. 991-1036.
On the heterogeneous effects of tax policy on labor market outcomes
(2022) Adnan, Wifag; Arin, Kerim Peren; Corakci, Aysegul; Spagnolo, Nicola; 103299
Many recent studies have documented the heterogeneous effects of government-spending shocks on major macroeconomic variables, particularly on output. We delve deeper into the heterogeneous effects of fiscal policy innovations, but focus on the tax policy innovations and their impact on the labor market, while accounting for gender, race, ethnicity, and the business cycle. Using microlevel data from the United States, we find that: (i) Tax shocks have varying employment effects depending on gender, race, and the stage of the business cycle; (ii) Sector, industry, and occupational segregation in labor markets by gender, race, and ethnicity can explain most of the variation in response to fiscal policy shocks.
Citation Count: Corakci, Aysegul; Emirmahmutoglu, Furkan; Tolga, Omay, "PPP hypothesis and temporary structural breaks", Economics Bulletin, Vol.37, No.3, pp.1541-1548, (2017).
PPP hypothesis and temporary structural breaks
(Economics Bulletin, 2017) Çorakçı, Ayşegül; Emirmahmutoğlu, Furkan; Omay, Tolga; 103299
In this study our aim is to explore a better testing strategy for the PPP hypothesis under a temporary structural break. For this purpose we use the exponential smooth transition (EST) function in the unit root testing framework and compare this methodology with the one that uses a Fourier function. Although the Fourier function is extensively used in the literature to test the validity of the PPP hypothesis under temporary breaks, this investigation shows that it leads to misleading results.
Citation Count: Çorakçı, Ayşegül; Omay, T. (2014). "Terrorism and the Stock Market: A Case Study for Turkey Using STR Models", Journal of Reviews on Global Economics, Vol.3, pp.220-227.
Terrorism and the Stock Market: A Case Study for Turkey Using STR Models
(2014) Çorakçı, Ayşegül; Omay, Tolga; 103299
Several attempts have been made in the literature to analyze the detrimental effects of terrorist activities on the stock market. However, in neither of these studies the effects of terrorist activities on stock returns are investigated through employing nonlinear models in spite of the fact that most financial data is shown to exhibit nonlinear behaviour. This study, therefore, aims to contribute to this growing area of research by exploring the potential nonlinear effects of terrorist activities on stock returns by employing smooth transition regression (STR) models. Our results show that terrorism has a statistically significant negative effect on the stock index when the intensity of terrorist activities passes a certain threshold level. This negative effect continues for terrorist activities below this threshold level, but becomes statistically insignificant. This study by conducting the analysis within a nonlinear framework offers important insights into the investors who want to make portfolio diversification strategies against terrorism risk.

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