Ekonomi Bölümü
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Article Citation Count: Doğan, Ergun; Zhang, Xibin (2023). "A nonparametric panel data model for examining the contribution of tourism to economic growth", Economic Modelling, Vol. 128.A nonparametric panel data model for examining the contribution of tourism to economic growth(2023) Doğan, Ergun; Zhang, Xibin; 43080We apply a nonparametric panel data model with cross-sectional and time-varying coefficients to examine the relationship between tourist arrivals and economic growth in the Schengen area from 1995 to 2019. In contrast to the parametric models employed in other studies, our nonparametric model makes no assumption about functional form and, hence, allows us to model the relationship nonlinearly. We find that the tourism–economic growth relationship in the Schengen area is nonlinear and time-varying. While the relationship between tourism and economic growth was positive and significant during 1995–2003, it was negative and significant during the Global Financial Crisis (2007–2008) and the European recession of 2012–2013. One additional contribution of the study is the finding that total factor productivity (TFP) has been growing at 1.45% per year. The results also show that country-level TFP growth was disrupted during the aforementioned negative economic shocks.Article Citation Count: Omay, Tolga; Çorakçı, Ayşegül (2023). "A Unit Root Test with Markov Switching Deterministic Components: A Special Emphasis on Nonlinear Optimization Algorithms", Computational Economics.A Unit Root Test with Markov Switching Deterministic Components: A Special Emphasis on Nonlinear Optimization Algorithms(2023) Omay, Tolga; Çorakçı, Ayşegül; 103299In this study, we investigate the performance of different optimization algorithms in estimating the Markov switching (MS) deterministic components of the traditional ADF test. For this purpose, we consider Broyden, Fletcher, Goldfarb, and Shanno (BFGS), Berndt, Hall, Hall, Hausman (BHHH), Simplex, Genetic, and Expectation-Maximization (EM) algorithms. The simulation studies show that the Simplex method has significant advantages over the other commonly used hill-climbing methods and EM. It gives unbiased estimates of the MS deterministic components of the ADF unit root test and delivers good size and power properties. When Hamilton’s (Econometrica 57:357–384, 1989) MS model is re-evaluated in conjunction with the alternative algorithms, we furthermore show that Simplex converges to the global optima in stationary MS models with remarkably high precision and even when convergence criterion is raised, or initial values are altered. These advantages of the Simplex routine in MS models allow us to contribute to the current literature. First, we produce the exact critical values of the generalized ADF unit root test with MS breaks in trends. Second, we derive the asymptotic distribution of this test and provide its invariance feature. © 2023, The Author(s), under exclusive licence to Springer Science+Business Media, LLC, part of Springer Nature.Article Citation Count: Erdil, Erkan; Cılasun, Seyit Mümin; Eruygur, Ayşegül, "DO R&D expenditures matter for labor productivity in oecd countries? An unresolved question ", Hacettepe Üniversitesi İktisadi ve İdari Bilimler Fakültesi Dergisi, Vol. 31, No. 1, pp. 71-82, (2013).DO R&D expenditures matter for labor productivity in oecd countries? An unresolved question(2013) Erdil, Erkan; Cilasun, Seyit Mümin; Eruygur, AyşegülÇalışmanın amacı, 22 OECD ülkesi için 19912003 dönemi verilerini kullanarak araştırma geliştirme harcamaları ile işgücü verimliliği arasındaki ilişkiyi panel veri yöntemleri kullanarak incelemektir. Bu amaçla, fiziki sermeye, bilgi sermayesi, beşeri sermaye ve emekten oluşan bir Cobb-Douglas tipi üretim fonksiyonu tahmin edilmiştir. Bu değişkenlere ilave olarak dış ticaret hacmi ve ARGE yayılımı kontrol değişkenlerinin eklendiği tahmin sonuçlarına göre işgücü verimliliği ile ARGE arasında pozitif bir uzun dönem esnekliği vardır. Bu sonuç, işgücü ve sermaye yoğunluğu değişkenlerinin dışarıda bırakıldığı alternatif bir model için de geçerlidir. Dışa açıklığı yansıtan dış ticaret hacmi değişkeni de bu modelde istatistiksel olarak anlamlı bulunmuştur.Article Citation Count: Erdil, Erkan; Cilasun, Seyit Mümin; Eruygur, A. (2013). "DO R&D expenditures matter for labor productivity in oecd countries? An unresolved question", Hacettepe Üniversitesi İktisadi ve İdari Bilimler Fakültesi Dergisi, Vol.31, No.1, pp.71-82.DO R&D expenditures matter for labor productivity in oecd countries? An unresolved question(2013) Erdil, Erkan; Cilasun, Seyit Mümin; Eruygur, AyşegülÇalışmanın amacı, 22 OECD ülkesi için 1991 2003 dönemi verilerinikullanarak araştırma geliştirme harcamaları ile işgücü verimliliği arasındakiilişkiyi panel veri yöntemleri kullanarak incelemektir. Bu amaçla, fiziki sermeye, bilgi sermayesi, beşeri sermaye ve emekten oluşan bir Cobb-Douglas tipi üretimfonksiyonu tahmin edilmiştir. Bu değişkenlere ilave olarak dış ticaret hacmi veARGE yayılımı kontrol değişkenlerinin eklendiği tahmin sonuçlarına göreişgücü verimliliği ile ARGE arasında pozitif bir uzun dönem esnekliği vardır. Busonuç, işgücü ve sermaye yoğunluğu değişkenlerinin dışarıda bırakıldığıalternatif bir model için de geçerlidir. Dışa açıklığı yansıtan dış ticaret hacmideğişkeni de bu modelde istatistiksel olarak anlamlı bulunmuştur.Book Part Citation Count: Omay, Tolga; Hasanov, Mübariz (2013). "Does the term structure of interest rate predict real economic activity? Nonlinear evidence from Turkey", Interest Rates: Term Structure Models, Monetary Policy, and Prediction, pp. 129-149.Does the term structure of interest rate predict real economic activity? Nonlinear evidence from Turkey(2013) Omay, Tolga; Hasanov, MübarizIn this chapter we investigate whether the term structure of interest rates contains useful information about future real economic activity in Turkey for the period 1995:1 to 2003:3. The best model to describe the relationship between the term structure of interest rate and real economic activity in Turkey has been found to be Multiple Regime Smooth Transition Regression (MR-STR) model. Our results show that the relationship between the term structure of interest rates and the future economic activity is negative and significant in economic expansion and contraction periods, while it becomes positive and insignificant in moderate growth periods. In order to analyze these relationships, we employ correlation analysis by using nonparametric estimation technique. The results of correlation analysis are found to be consistent with the recursive Chow test and parameter stability tests. In addition, the correlation analysis indicates that the negative effects of the spread on real output can be explained by the interaction between the effects of the Expectation Hypothesis and Interest Transmission Channel.Article Citation Count: Omay, Tolga; Çorakçı, Ayşegül; Hasdemir, Esra (2021). "High persistence and nonlinear behavior in financial variables: A more powerful unit root testing in the estar framework", Mathematics, Vol. 9, No. 20.High persistence and nonlinear behavior in financial variables: A more powerful unit root testing in the estar framework(2021) Omay, Tolga; Çorakçı, Ayşegül; Hasdemir, Esra; 103299In this study, we consider the hybrid nonlinear features of the Exponential Smooth Transition Autoregressive-Fractional Fourier Function (ESTAR-FFF) form unit root test. As is well known, when developing a unit root test for the ESTAR model, linearization is performed by the Taylor approximation, and thereby the nuisance parameter problem is eliminated. Although this linearization process leads to a certain amount of information loss in the unit root testing equation, it also causes the resulting test to be more accessible and consistent. The method that we propose here contributes to the literature in three important ways. First, it reduces the information loss that arises due to the Taylor expansion. Second, the research to date has tended to misinterpret the Fourier function used with the Kapetanios, Shin and Snell (2003) (KSS) unit root test and considers it to capture multiple smooth transition structural breaks. The simulation studies that we carry out in this study clearly show that the Fourier function only restores the Taylor residuals of the ESTAR type function rather than accounting forthe smooth structural break. Third, the new nonlinear unit root test developed in this paper has very strong power in the highly persistent near unit root envi-ronment that the financial data exhibit. The application of the Kapetanios Shin Snell-Fractional Fourier (KSS-FF) test to ex-post real interest rates data of 11 OECD countries for country-specific sample periods shows that the new test catches nonlinear stationarity in many more countries than the KSS test itself. © 2021 by the authors. Licensee MDPI, Basel, Switzerland.Article Citation Count: Çorakçı, Ayşegül; Omay, Tolga (2023). "Is there convergence in renewable energy deployment? Evidence from a new panel unit root test with smooth and sharp structural breaks", Renewable Energy, Vol. 205, pp. 648-662.Is there convergence in renewable energy deployment? Evidence from a new panel unit root test with smooth and sharp structural breaks(2023) Çorakçı, Ayşegül; Omay, Tolga; 103299This study examines whether the contribution of renewable energy to the total primary energy supply converges in a panel of 24 OECD countries over the period 1960–2020. To this end, a new panel unit root test that allows for both sharp and smooth breaks is proposed to test for the stochastic convergence hypothesis. Although renewable energy convergence is not rejected when the newly proposed test is applied to the full panel of OECD countries, it found only moderate support within the members of the panel using a sequential panel selection methodology. In fact, in two high-income OECD countries, the contribution of renewable energy to the primary energy supply shows no sign of convergence: Poland and Iceland. Therefore, the renewable energy shares seem to be converging to a common steady state in only a group of OECD countries over the long run. This uneven pattern of convergence, in turn, suggests that the OECD countries are still far away from developing a common sustainable renewable energy target, calling for urgent international policy cooperation to encourage the divergent economies to seek out the menu of policies that ensure the worldwide success of renewable energy transformation.Article Citation Count: Islam, M. Q.; Tiku, M. L. (2004). "Multiple linear regression model under nonnormality", Communications in Statistics-Theory and Methods, Vol. 33, No. 10, pp. 2443-2467Multiple linear regression model under nonnormality(2004) Islam, M. Q.; Tiku, M. L.We consider multiple linear regression models under nonnormality. We derive modified maximum likelihood estimators (MMLEs) of the parameters and show that they are efficient and robust. We show that the least squares esimators are considerably less efficient. We compare the efficiencies of the MMLEs and the M estimators for symmetric distributions and show that, for plausible alternatives to an assumed distribution, the former are more efficient. We provide real-life examples.Article Citation Count: Islam, MQ; Tiku, ML; Yıldırım F., "Nonnormal regression. i. skew distributions" Communications In Statistics-Theory And Methods, Vol.30, No.6, pp.993-1020, (2001).Nonnormal regression. i. skew distributions(Marcel Dekker Inc, 2001) Islam, M. Qamarul; Tiku, M. L.; Yıldırım, F.In a linear regression model of the type y = thetaX + e, it is often assumed that the random error e is normally distributed. In numerous situations, e.g., when y measures life times or reaction times, e typically has a skew distribution. We consider two important families of skew distributions, (a) Weibull with support IR: (0, infinity) on the real line, and (b) generalised logistic with support IR: (-infinity, infinity). Since the maximum likelihood estimators are intractable in these situations, we derive modified likelihood estimators which have explicit algebraic forms and are, therefore, easy to compute. We show that these estimators are remarkably efficient, and robust. We develop hypothesis testing procedures and give a real life example.Article Citation Count: Tiku, ML; Islam, MQ; Selcuk, AS, "Nonnormal regression. II. Symmetric distributions", Communications in Statistics-Theory and Methods, Vol. 30, No. 6, pp. 1021-1045, (2001).Nonnormal regression. II. Symmetric distributions(Taylor&Francis INC, 2001) Tiku, M. L.; Islam, M. Qamarul; Selçuk, A. S.Salient features of a family of short-tailed symmetric distributions, introduced recently by Tiku and Vaughan [1], are enunciated. Assuming the error distribution to be one of this family, the methodology of modified likelihood is used to derive MML estimators of parameters in a linear regression model. The estimators are shown to be efficient, and robust to inliers. This paper is essentially the first to achieve robustness to infers. The methodology is extended to long-tailed symmetric distributions and the resulting estimators are shown to be efficient, and robust to outliers. This paper should be read in conjunction with Islam et al. [2] who develop modified likelihood methodology for skew distributions in the context of linear regression.Article Citation Count: Corakçı, Ayşegül; Emirmahmutoglu, Furkan; Omay, Tolga, "Re-examining the real interest rate parity hypothesis (RIPH) using panel unit root tests with asymmetry and cross-section dependence", Emprica, Vol.44, No.11, pp.91-120, (2017).Re-examining the real interest rate parity hypothesis (RIPH) using panel unit root tests with asymmetry and cross-section dependence(Springer, 2017) Çorakçı, Ayşegül; Emirmahmutoğlu, Furkan; Omay, Tolga; 103299This paper investigates the validity of the real interest rate parity hypothesis (RIPH) using a panel unit root approach. For this purpose, first we estimate the possible nonlinear data-generating processes of the real interest rate differential series and using these estimates determine which panel unit root test is better for analyzing the RIPH. To this end, smooth transition autoregressive and threshold autoregressive (TAR) models are estimated for two different panels of countries: G7 and post-Soviet transition economies. The results show that the data displays both strong asymmetry and high transition speed. Therefore, secondly, we propose a new panel unit root test where the alternative is stationary with asymmetric TAR adjustment, and provide their empirical power properties. Finally, we demonstrate that our newly proposed test is able to provide conclusive evidence in favor of the RIPH in contrast to the other panel unit root tests considered.Article Citation Count: Omay, Tolga; Çorakçı, Ayşegül; Emirmahmutoglu, Furkan, "Real interest rates: nonlinearity and structural breaks", Empirical Economics, Empirical Economics, Empirical Economic, Vol.52, No.1, pp.283-307, (2017).Real interest rates: nonlinearity and structural breaks(Physica-Verlag Gmbh & Co, 2017) Omay, Tolga; Çorakçı, Ayşegül; Emirmahmutoğlu, Furkan; 103299Real interest rate is a crucial variable that determines the consumption, investment and saving behavior of individuals and thereby acts as a key policy tool that the central banks use to control the economy. Although many important theoretical models require the real interest rates to be stationary, the empirical evidence accumulated so far has not been able to provide conclusive evidence on the mean reverting dynamics of this variable. To resolve this puzzle we re-investigate the stochastic nature of the real interest rates by developing unit root tests for nonlinear heterogeneous panels where the alternative hypothesis allows for a smooth transition between deterministic linear trends around which stationary asymmetric adjustment may occur. When the newly developed panel unit root tests are applied to the real interest rates of the 17 OECD countries, we were able to uncover overwhelming empirical support in favor of mean reversion in the short-run and long-run real interest rates. Therefore, these results show that the conclusions drawn from a miss-specified test that ignores the presence of either nonlinearity, structural breaks or cross sectional dependence can give quite misleading results about the stochastic behavior of the real interest rates.Article Citation Count: Sazak, H., Tiko, ML., Islam, MQ. (2006). Regression analysis with a dtochastic design variable. International Statistical Review, 74(1), 77-88.Regression analysis with a dtochastic design variable(In Statistical Inst, 2006) Sazak, Hakan; Tiku, Moti L.; S., Hakan; Islam, M. QamarulIn regression models, the design variable has primarily been treated as a nonstochastic variable. In numerous situations, however, the design variable is stochastic. The estimation and hypothesis testing problems in such situations are considered. Real life examples are givenBook Citation Count: Aydoğan, Neslihan; Chen, Yiu Por. Social Capital and Business Development in High-Technology Clusters: An Analysis of Contemporary U.S. Agglomerations, Springer New York, 2008.Social Capital and Business Development in High-Technology Clusters: An Analysis of Contemporary U.S. Agglomerations(2008) Aydoğan, Neslihan; Chen, Yiu PorArticle Citation Count: Eruygur, A. (2011). "The New Keynesian Phillips curve: in search of improvements for Adaptation to the Turkish economy", Ekonomik Yaklaşım, Vol.22, No.79, pp.1-20.The New Keynesian Phillips curve: in search of improvements for Adaptation to the Turkish economy(2011) Eruygur, AyşegülBu makalede oldukça geniş olan Yeni Keynesgil Phillips Eğrisi literatürü; hem teorik hem de ampirik açıdan bir çok tartışmayı gözler önüne serecek biçimde incelenmiştir. Yeni Keynesgil Phillips Eğrisi’nin Türkiye uygulamaları bu eğrinin Türkiye’ye uygulanabilirliği ve geçerliliğiyle ilgili oldukça çelişkili sonuçlar vermektedir. Bu çelişkili sonuçlar özellikle, bu çalışmalarda Türkiye’nin önemli yapısal özelliklerinin göz ardı edilmesine ve açık ekonomiyi tanımlayan etmenlerin Yeni Keynesgil Phillips Eğrisi’ne dahil ediliş şekline göre oluşan farklı model yapılarına atfedilmiştir. Türkiye’ye uygulanacak bir Yeni Keynesgil Phillips Eğrisi modelinde, ithal ara malları içeren bir üretim fonksiyonu, ithal mallarda tamolmayan döviz kuru geçişkenliği ile birleştirilmelidir. Ampirik bulgular ithal malı fiyatlarına kur geçişkenliğinin tam olmadığını gösterdikleri halde; Türkiye için yapılmış çalışmaların hiçbirinde bu özelliğe yer verilmemiş ve dolayısıyla da ithal malı fiyatlama kararı modellenememiştir. Bunun yanı sıra, Türkiye’ye uygulanan Yeni Keynesgil Phillips Eğrisi modellerinde üretim sadece emeğin üretim faktörü olduğu doğrusal Cobb-Douglas fonksiyonu kullanılarak modellenmiştir. Halbuki Türkiye’ye ithal edilen malların çoğu ara malı düzeyindedir ve endüstrilerin üretim maliyetlerinin temelini de yine bu girdilere yapılan harcamalar oluşturmaktadır.Article Citation Count: Kardam, Filiz, "Training for Empowerment in Turkish Women's NGOs: Processes and Impact", Kadın Araştırmaları Dergisi, Vol. -1, No. 8, pp. 43-68, (2003).Training for Empowerment in Turkish Women's NGOs: Processes and Impact(2003) Kardam, FilizThis article attempts to study the concept of empowerment in the Turkish context based on the case studies of women's organisations implementing empowerment training programs. The study brings together the evaluations of the participants, co-ordinators and trainers on the impact of these programs in order to show how the feeling of power and personal change manifests itself in private and public life experiences of women and the complexity of the processes of empowerment. The role of the organisation and the trainer are handled as the two critical factors affecting the results of these programs.In the concluding section, various issues influencing the impact of these rograms are brought to attention such as the role of the social and political culture, lack of well-defined criteria for evaluation as well as further expectations from empowerment training.
